Trouble with big pots.

[Pokerho]

This is my first time in the psychology forum, and I find it very interesting so far. Hopefully someone can offer me some insight.

I'm a generally winning on-line player, though since UIGEA, my profits have been way down. One big problem I seem to be having is getting stacked when I shouldn't. I tend to go all in with hands that I shouldn't, either bluffing at a pot or thinking "this guy can't possibly have...", even though it seems like the right play at the time. PT shows my won $ at sd to be a very consistent 47 or so % for both pre and post UIGEA, for whatever that's worth.

Is there any way to fix this short of just not being a moron?

[superadvisor]

Variance

[JayKon]

I don't think it's just varience. More likely that you're playing against more skilled players since the casual players have shifted to live games.

[Pokerho]

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Variance

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I wasn't looking for an explanation, I was hoping to get some general advice on how to avoid getting involved in big pots when I'm behind. But thanks for your insight.

[Nytecaster]

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Variance

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I wasn't looking for an explanation, I was hoping to get some general advice on how to avoid getting involved in big pots when I'm behind. But thanks for your insight.

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The pit that many people fall into is overplaying top pair good kicker. It's not that great a hand against a lot of action and knowing when to release is going to save you and your hair. This is where your hand reading skills are going to come into play a lot.

Another would be failing to create difficult decisions for your opponents on every hand you are involved in. You should always be thinking about what a particular opponent thinks of you based on your previous plays and how best to win the pot right there. There's nothing wrong with folding potential second best hands, especially if you have a feeling you are going to have to pay a lot to see the showdown. For all intensive purposes, it may make you money on a hand later on when you do have a strong holding.

Last but not least, the stakes and the sophistication of the opponent you are up against should determine the best strategy at any given moment. If you aren't sure about your particular opponent, then you should avoid big pots with them. If you cannot avoid big pots with them, you should find another table where you can get involved in big pots. This is probably the toughest thing to do mentally, but the easiest thing to do online where you can bounce around at will.

My two cents.

[Jon1000]

if it's not just variance, and you are experiencing this over a significant sample size, though that would seem difficult since 10k "big pots" takes a while, then you most likely have some leaks in your game. start here and keep reading after you're finished.

[TheGrasshopper]

You're probably not building your pots when you hit the flop hard. One thing I've learned is that overbetting big hands is hugely profitbale.

[Pokerho]

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The pit that many people fall into is overplaying top pair good kicker. It's not that great a hand against a lot of action and knowing when to release is going to save you and your hair. This is where your hand reading skills are going to come into play a lot.

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I think this was a good observation. Looking at my AKo numbers, I see that since UIGEA, I have played AKs to -.02 BB/hand. That's clearly a hole.

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Another would be failing to create difficult decisions for your opponents on every hand you are involved in. You should always be thinking about what a particular opponent thinks of you based on your previous plays and how best to win the pot right there. There's nothing wrong with folding potential second best hands, especially if you have a feeling you are going to have to pay a lot to see the showdown. For all intensive purposes, it may make you money on a hand later on when you do have a strong holding.

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I haven't quite figured out how to do this yet. I do think about what the other player thinks of me but it seems like this gets me into trouble as often as not, especially in a big pot. For example, say I have raised in a large percentage of the previous few hands, and I get QQ on the next hand. I raise, and someone reraises. I think 'ok, this guy has seen me raise a bunch, and probably thinks im full of crap, and is reraising me with a less than stellar hand,' so I reraise big, maybe all in, and get called by AA, KK, or AK, which I know from experience is what 80% of all reraisers at this level have, and I get clobbered.

[Pokerho]

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if it's not just variance, and you are experiencing this over a significant sample size, though that would seem difficult since 10k "big pots" takes a while, then you most likely have some leaks in your game. start here and keep reading after you're finished.

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Amazing post. Thanks very much for pointing it out. Also, feel free to comment on the questions I added to it. I hope to owe you bigtime one day for this.

[Rollos]

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Variance

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I wasn't looking for an explanation, I was hoping to get some general advice on how to avoid getting involved in big pots when I'm behind. But thanks for your insight.

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check.