77, flopped bottom set close to bubble

[paddymcg21]

Ok so the consensus is call. Surely there is a case to fold though? I posted this thinking there would be mixed responses. At the time I saw the board as very draw heavy, not to mention the possibility of QQ or JJ (I thought the button must have something big to 3 bet the flop). I dont know the exact maths but id say if one had T9 and the other a flush draw, then my chances of winning the pot would be probably no better than 50%. I did end up folding like a pussy in the end, UTG+1 showed QJ (2 pair) and button showed AsKs (flush draw and gutshot). Turn and river were blanks and I would have taken a huge pot. Im trying not to look at it in terms of the result, more whether or not I was an idiot to fold. I thought it was a close one to call but people who have replied here seem to think it's an easy call. Maybe I still have a lot to learn.

[Mingdu]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I still have a lot to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha ... get in line

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so the consensus is call. Surely there is a case to fold though? I posted this thinking there would be mixed responses. At the time I saw the board as very draw heavy, not to mention the possibility of QQ or JJ (I thought the button must have something big to 3 bet the flop). I dont know the exact maths but id say if one had T9 and the other a flush draw, then my chances of winning the pot would be probably no better than 50%. I did end up folding like a pussy in the end, UTG+1 showed QJ (2 pair) and button showed AsKs (flush draw and gutshot). Turn and river were blanks and I would have taken a huge pot. Im trying not to look at it in terms of the result, more whether or not I was an idiot to fold. I thought it was a close one to call but people who have replied here seem to think it's an easy call. Maybe I still have a lot to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, Paddy, it's very possible you were only ~50% against two big draws, but did you check out the size of the pot that you were getting odds to call with?

[TroutMaskReplica]

if you just making the money means that much to you then why call pre-flop in the first place?

[bluesbassman]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so the consensus is call. Surely there is a case to fold though?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if you hate money.

F--- the bubble, this is *exactly* the type of situation for which you should be looking to get in all your chips. This is an instacall shipitholla.

[nath]

CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

[hamnegger]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so the consensus is call. Surely there is a case to fold though? I posted this thinking there would be mixed responses. At the time I saw the board as very draw heavy, not to mention the possibility of QQ or JJ (I thought the button must have something big to 3 bet the flop). I dont know the exact maths but id say if one had T9 and the other a flush draw, then my chances of winning the pot would be probably no better than 50%.

[/ QUOTE ]


if 3 ppl are putting all their money in and you are 50% to win isn't that the kind of overlay you want? you are better than 50% too. think about winning the tournament. you make profit from tourns by making first 5 not placing . placing pays for the next tournament and i know noone who is 50%itm for multi tbl tourns.

[paddymcg21]

Yeh the thing is I was very aware of the odds I was getting but still didnt call. Mainly because the button is so tight and I chickened out. Obviously I wish id called but I did end up making final table and coming 8th, I know if id called Id have a great chance at first but what the hell. I reckon I dont come ITM nearly as much as I should. Im new to Absolute and hav only played 11 MTTS, of these ive cashed 4 times including 1 win and 1 other final table. However my usual thinking around the bubble is to bully and chip up which always ends up with me getting a horrible suck out and getting bubbled. I honestly think if I just tightened up a bit near the bubble id have cashed at least 3 other times (obv I realise this is a tiny sample size). I think these recent suckouts (last night my AA got cracked by 9T and I came 47th with 45 paying) have somewhat clouded my judgement and made me almost scared to call, which is definitely not good. Oh well, maybe my question is a simple one but at least its not "5 people go all in on the 1st hand of the wsop, you have AA, WHAT DO YOU DO??????" LOL, cheers for the responses
Paddy

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
I reckon I dont come ITM nearly as much as I should.

[/ QUOTE ]Forget about how often you "should" come ITM. Each player has a unique style with a unique cashing pattern.

I don't cash very often, but when I do I usually make it deep - very deep - and that more than makes up for the 25 OOTM finishes in between.

Don't focus on cashing. Focus on making the best decissions at any point, given your opponents and their stacks, your cards, your position, your stack etc. etc.
[ QUOTE ]
[...] my usual thinking around the bubble is to bully and chip up which always ends up with me getting a horrible suck out and getting bubbled. I honestly think if I just tightened up a bit near the bubble id have cashed at least 3 other times

[/ QUOTE ]Don't worry about the bubble. The bubble is not there to survive, and the bubble is not there to abuse. Generally speaking the bubble is inconsequential.

Instead focus on your opponents. If some of them suddenly plays very tight with a small stack, well then that's what you react to - no matter what might cause it. If some of them suddenly play very aggressive with big stacks - more aggresive then you believe their cards warrant - then that's what you react to.

Remember, barely making the money in a tournament that pays 45 spots might give you like 0.4% of the prize sum. Making the top 3 might give you 10% - 25% of the prize sum.

How many times do you need to "lock down" 0.4% to justify giving up 10% - 25%???

[paddymcg21]

umm wheres my calculator?? lol

No you raise a good point, well presented. Barely cashing cannot make profit I understand that. Maybe bad experiences recently have made me tighten up around the bubble, but unless im playing a tourney above my bankroll which i have qualified for or whatever, I dont really care about the bubble. Id rather mount a challenge for final table and the top 3 than fold into the money and leave myself with no fold equity for a shove any day. You're totally right tho.
In conclusion I made a pretty awful lay down, even if one of the draws got there I still would have made a technically bad lay down.
thanks every1 for the help
Paddy