River spot early in stars 320

[hamnegger]

what seperates pros from most of us? ability to fold a very good but beaten hand and the ability to get value from our good hands. this is close and can be played either way. a value bet is fine and a check to induce a bluff/value bet is ok too. i [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[NoahSD]

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funny, I think it's a clear bet (1k, fold to shove). I don't think he's got a draw with the coldcall on a double paired board, and if he does he's not betting that much (esp since he has an ace a lot of the time and will check behind w/ showdown value). So, ignoring draws for that reason, he basically has a 7 or a 5 and will call/raise the river if you bet, and bet if you check (in which case betting is the same as check/calling), or he has a pair between 22 and TT, and he might fold to your bet and might call it, but will check behind on the river. So, betting is strictly superior to check-calling (when you eliminate draws), so it's just a question of how often he has a 7/5 here vs how often he calls with a smaller pair, and I think he has pairs often enough (and calls with them often enough) to make this a bet rather than a checkfold.

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i almost made this exact post, but i felt dirty saying bet-fold on the river and shoving is kinda big ... so i skipped posting.


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[NoahSD]

I don't really think we get raised by hands we beat often enough for it to really matter. Am I wrong there?

[aejones]

bet a lot of dough

prob don't go all in though

[Ansky]

che we aren't getting raised by those hands...

or at least not very often at all

[0evg0]

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I don't really think we get raised by hands we beat often enough for it to really matter. Am I wrong there?

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well even if they only raise all-in on river with 88-JJ like 10% of the time, it's still impactful enough imo.

Che,

betting is very profitable if we are behind 100% of the time when he raises.

if suddenly we are only behind 90% of the time they raise us, then although the value of bet/call goes up marginally it is still not nearly valuable enough to be a preferred line. and because the value of bet/call increases, the value of bet/folding therefore decreases proportionally from possibly being the most valuable line (or at least close to it), to something less.

hopefully this makes some sense. i have a hard time conveying the thoughts i have sometimes, and it's one of the reasons i rarely write more than 5 lines.

[0evg0]

now that i think about it though, as much as i hate to think there's much of a difference between buyins, this would be a different decision in a $55 mtt and i feel this point we are talking about re: worse hands raising for "value" just isn't prevalent enough here.

ALL,

What if this hand played out during the sunday mill?

[ZJ123]

Shove.

B/F might be correct, but thats hard to stomach.

Plus he might think were more likely to bluff if we shove, and there for look us up real thin.

[Ansky]

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now that i think about it though, as much as i hate to think there's much of a difference between buyins, this would be a different decision in a $55 mtt and i feel this point we are talking about re: worse hands raising for "value" just isn't prevalent enough here.

ALL,

What if this hand played out during the sunday mill?

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shove all day since they will call with muuuuuch worse on avg

[0evg0]

oh. yeah lol