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Old 05-14-2007, 12:56 PM
HLS2k6 HLS2k6 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 90
Default Re: LO/8 JJTT in Micro-Limit Game

[ QUOTE ]
A pretty marginal hand, but figured I could get in cheap and fold if the flop didn't hit me hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thinking above is exactly correct. So why did you do the exact opposite??

On this flop you have a gutshot to a straight on a board with both 2 to a flush and 2 to a low (a wheel no less). You have 3 clean outs, one of which will put another flush draw out there and still leave you with half the pot if the river is a low card.

Plus, your set outs are tainted as can be. Finally, you're calling a bet from a preflop raiser with FIVE people to act behind you!

This flop call is just awful. It has nothing to do with playing marginal hands leading to tough decisions, because this isn't a tough decision.

The flop wasn't marginal for you, it was terrible. And the pot isn't large, it's laying you 15 to 1 one, and your odds are 15 to 1 to hit a non diamond king on the turn (3 outs with 45 unknown cards). So if no one raises it behind you, and you hit your King on the turn, your call would mathematically break even for you (not counting turning a set and rivering a boat). Then you need to somehow blank the river-- no low, no flush, AND the board doesn't pair-- and you scoop.

Cliff notes: Preflop fine. Flop is a super easy fold.
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