27s: disagree with SNGPT?

[Bubblefish]

I have made two calculations regarding this hand:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
Both post are probably somewhat vague. Hope this post don’t make it worse…

Original hand (225/425):
Hero (t1575)
CO (t1895)
Button (t3515)
SB (t3840)
BB (t2675)
Hero is in UTG with 97s

Given reasonable ranges it is -0,9 % to push 97s according to SNGPT. SNGPT does not take into account the fact that Hero is hit by the BB next hand. SNGPT is giving Hero equity of 13 % after a fold. I tried to adjust this fold equity by calculating Heros equity after the next hand, when he is in the BB, assuming everyone plays with the equilibrium ranges. This calculation gives Hero a equity of 11,13 %. SNGPT is not taking into account the fact that there might be a confrontation after Hero folds in the original hand. Finnisher suggest that this effect is raising Heros fold equity by approximately 0,5 %-points. I think this is reasonable, so my best guess is that Heros fold equity is about 11,63 %.

In my second calculation I tried to find Heros equity after pushing his 97s. This is done by calculating the next hand, when Hero is in the BB, again assuming equilibrium ranges. After some simplifications my best guess is that Heros push equity is about 10,83 %. This is not taking overcalling into account.

The conclusion is that it might look like the Equity difference between my calculations and SNGPTs original calculations is minimal. It looks like the possible confrontation after Hero folds in the original hand is outweighing the effect of being in the BB with a small stack in the following hand. This is very surprising to me. Any insight by others is very welcome.