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#1
05-10-2007, 02:56 AM
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Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
A huge leak in my game I think is calling down too often facing raises on the turn and river. Not sure about this one.
Villain is 33/22/1.8. Only hand I beat IMO is AK, maaaaaaybe AQ. Does he have AK often enough here to call down? PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls. Flop: (12 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls. Turn: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font> 
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#2
05-10-2007, 03:09 AM
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Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
Calling this one will never be a leak
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#3
05-10-2007, 03:24 AM
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Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
So you lose to AA, JJ, 77, 88, 910. I am not sure whats less likely, him having AA or JJ or capping 77/88 pf. Most likely he is spazzing with his AKss/AQss. Its also not unlikely that he has AKo. I never ever fold here and maybe this is even close to a cap?
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#4
05-10-2007, 03:42 AM
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Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
folding is absurd
aa and jj always get played like this and that is 2 combos. 88 and 77 sometimes get played like this and that is 6 combos. maybe 88 and 77 are 4 weighted combos. given that, he needs to play ak or aq like this 6% of the time he has those hands for calling down to be good, and that's if he never has aj and never has something goofy. i could be wrong on the # of combos for hands i always forget what they are but the point will be the same either way
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#5
05-10-2007, 03:44 AM
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Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
If you fold here ppl might 3bet you much lighter too so if that is not what you want folding shouldnt be considered anyway
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#7
05-10-2007, 04:05 AM
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Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
People seem to hate folding. I didn't expect it to be so unanimous. Here is my analysis.
Remember he's 33/22/1.8 over 210 hands or so. Given that he's seen me play that much, he has to figure I have something on the turn. Hands he always plays like this: I'm ahead - A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (1 combo) I'm behind - AA, JJ (3 combos) You could argue with jacks, but I think a fairly aggressive pfr 22 guy is going to be capping jacks and betting that flop every time. Sometimes will play this way: I'm ahead - A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], AK not both spades (7 total combos) I'm behind - 88, 77 (4 total combos) I'm getting effective odds of 13:2 here. Actually, that's huge. Thinking it through, even without any of the sometimes hands (I think adding them in helps me more than hurts me) I'm ahead 1 time in 4 and if ahead will win on the river when no king or spade comes, which coincidentally is 3 times in 4. So the probability of winning the pot is (1/4)(3/4) = 3/16 and the odds against are 13:3. So assuming he will also bet the river on a missed AsKs I'm getting sufficient odds to call down. It appears that even if he would check behind on the river when behind calling is still good. Guess it was clearer than it appeared.
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#9
05-10-2007, 04:46 AM
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Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
jared l reading hands is a lot muddier than u seem to think. u cant assume a player will never have aq or a8 or ktss or jtcc here.
when ur giving villain a hand range of like 8 combos then neglecting the 1 in 200 chance villain is playing kt like this (and the 1 in 200 chance of two dozen other hands) cripples ur analysis
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#10
05-10-2007, 04:52 AM
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Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
[ QUOTE ]
jared l reading hands is a lot muddier than u seem to think. u cant assume a player will never have aq or a8 or ktss or jtcc here. when ur giving villain a hand range of like 8 combos then neglecting the 1 in 200 chance villain is playing kt like this (and the 1 in 200 chance of two dozen other hands) cripples ur analysis [/ QUOTE ] Not a bad point, but I was doing a worst case scenario. I was assuming that he had AA, JJ, or AK of spades. Adding in hands will only make calling down better. I don't think capping could be correct here and adding random hands would only help me so doing it this cleanly was fine in this case.
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