Derby Picks

[rush66]

I bet at VIP and even so Bodog changed it. Here is the correct bodog line.


Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007?

Must race in the Preakness Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100
Yes

+350
No

-600

[NajdorfDefense]

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I hate reading random "handicapping" please more figures.

Clark, for what you say to hold truth he'd likely need to be head and shoulders above what everyone else is ATM. I don't understand why he was 4-1 in Derby and would be 6-5 in another race soon after. Seems like standard recent form fallacy.

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There's dramatically more information available now, even considering it's just one race. In addition, the Preakness will have at least 6 fewer horses, maybe half the number of horses, and the new horses in the field are almost always worse than the horses they are replacing from the Derby. Plus, field size in the Preakness significantly reduces luck relative to the Derby, especially for a closer. There are a lot of reasons the favorites in the preakness have historically won at a rate dwarfing that of favorites in the Derby.
Again, I likely will bet against the horse in the race itself. But -400 is simply a silly bet.

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Thremp, Clark is correct.
1) We have dramatically more info. Hugely more info.
2) 17-18 of the 20 horses were exposed as 'not good.'
3) The Preakness is max 14. SS can't get hung out on post 20. Generally, fewer than 14 run the race.
4) Many of the new horses will also suck.

Barbaro went from 5-1 to even money or so, his Beyer was only 1 higher.
Smarty went from 4.2-1 to even/6-5 or so to 3-10 in the Belmont. That's how pari-mutuel betting works with very good horses.
Secretariat was famously 1-10 at Belmont.

Given SS bloodline, domination at 2 years old and win at Churchill, the odds are likely to drop. +125 is my guess [if not even money] for Preakness, and I won't be betting him there but that's where it'll be is my best guess.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Since you like history, here's something to consider. 2yo champs who also won the Derby since 1950.

1955 - Needles
1971 - Riva Ridge
1972 - Secretariat
1974 - Foolish Pleasure
1977 - Seattle Slew
1978 - Affirmed
1979 - Spectacular Bid
2006 - Street Sense


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C'mon Clark, don't eff up your newfound equine cred. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SBid won Preakness in record time [or close] then stepped on a safety pin morning of Belmont and came in 3rd.

This is awesome:
'He began the race as the odds-on favorite. His trainer Bud Delp was so confident of victory that as the horse paraded in front of the fans, he called out to them "Go bet! Go bet!".
Spectacular Bid went on to win by 2 3/4 lengths over General Assembly, a very well bred son of Secretariat. '

Right up there with 'Yeah, I got a question.

You got any excuses tonite Roy?'

[Clarkmeister]

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Since you like history, here's something to consider. 2yo champs who also won the Derby since 1950.

1955 - Needles
1971 - Riva Ridge
1972 - Secretariat
1974 - Foolish Pleasure
1977 - Seattle Slew
1978 - Affirmed
1979 - Spectacular Bid
2006 - Street Sense


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C'mon Clark, don't eff up your newfound equine cred. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Twas a joke post for the history buff.

[rush66]

My bad, the only info I have about betting this event is the chapter from King Yao's book. I respect his opinion immensely and he talked at length about history playing a large role in this prop. I lost the chapter he wrote unfortunately, but thanks for helping me learn either way. Like I said, if Im wrong then ill eat crow.

[TripleH68]

Clark, Naj, etc.,

Back to racing. Is there anything to make of how Street Sense came back into the rail path after passing Hard Spun? Does SS still have a lot to learn? If he gets off the rail in the Preakness and finds himself in tight this could get interesting. My quick early thought is building a super ticket with SS in the under spots.

For those that say they do not know horse racing, nobody is going to give SS the Preakness. One of the reasons the favorite has fared well at Pimlico is, as was already mentioned, that the horses with the best chance to beat the derby winner are often compromised by their effort in the derby(and often times do not run). As a true horse racing fan I would like to see the derby field reduced. The horses who got stuck in the 18 and 20 posts this year deserved better. And I also hope Stormello is able to bounce back this year from his difficult campaign.

Thanks all.

[Thremp]

Naj,

I know its pari-mutuel which makes me lean toward it being even less efficient than a regular line. Just because the lines shift in large public events does not make the movement necessarily efficient.

[rush66]

I was also wondering about that. Someone commented to me that the move on hard spun from 15-1 to 9-1 made the horse a good play? Is that necessarily true in horse racing?

[NajdorfDefense]

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Naj,

I know its pari-mutuel which makes me lean toward it being even less efficient than a regular line. Just because the lines shift in large public events does not make the movement necessarily efficient.

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Thremp, that was the whole point of my post. You said, 'I don't understand why he was 4-1 in Derby and would be 6-5 in another race soon after.' and I'm saying it's exactly because the public are idiots AMIRITE?

To show the obviousness of this, I'll bet you/anyone any amount up to $10k[fiteyo?], more in escrow, that StSense goes off at worse odds than 2-1 at post time [i.e. 8-5, not 3-1], assuming he runs in the Preakness

It is irrelevant if the shift is 'correct' or not - just like you said.
It was for Smarty, War Emblem, and AAlex, it may or may not be here. But it will happen. You are ignoring huge extra info we just got if you feel otherwise - the win, the speed, the Beyer, the lack of competition, all the other things mentioned.

[NajdorfDefense]

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I was also wondering about that. Someone commented to me that the move on hard spun from 15-1 to 9-1 made the horse a good play? Is that necessarily true in horse racing?

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Absolutely not.

It was a good play because *I* said it was at 18-1/ and 19-1 earlier in the week. DUCY?

Of course, I got no credit for that. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]