200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?

[SharkSandwich]

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Let's say he would check two pair/ or a set on the turn ~25% of the time. Let's also say that he would only bluff with 66-TT 30% of the time.

44/55/JJ/KK = 10 combos; KJs = 2 combos. 66-TT = 30; QJs = 2; QQ=3

-65*11% + -65*25%*50% + 201*64%*30% = $23


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Excellent analysis jk. I think you'd have to stretch a little to make this -EV.

You'd have to limit the PP's to like 88-TT (which is too narrow against most). Maybe increase the set-check rate.

And basically I think your 2nd set of numbers are all reasonable probability numbers. I'm still with calling, even though he did have JJ.
And I think Villain actually got about the least out of it by checking the Turn (when he's hoping Hero has at least AK) and then betting so small on the River.

Interesting hand overall. And the type of thing I think forums like this thrive on.