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#1
05-04-2007, 06:22 AM
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prop bet: picture cards on flop, who is the favourite?
A friend of mine was telling me about a prop bet he witnessed in a hold'em game. A professional player and another player were betting even money on whether a picture card showed up on the flop. The professional had the picture cards and the other guy had the rest of the deck. The professional seemed pretty sure he had the best of it, but me and my friend aren't so sure. Anybody out there able to explain to me who the favourite is in this match up? thanks.
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#2
05-04-2007, 11:05 AM
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Re: prop bet: picture cards on flop, who is the favourite?
The odds of no face cards on the flop is (40*39*38)/(52*51*50) = .447. So a fairly big edge for betting on a face card hitting. But, if you get to look at your cards first, you can tilt the odds in your favor by only taking the bet when you have two face cards yourself. Now a face card will hit only 49.6% of the time. Unless your opponent has also looked at his cards and found two non face cards, in which case he's in the lead again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
A much closer bet is offering 100-1 on the flop being all face cards, which will happen (12*11*10)/(52*51*50) = .995% of the time.
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#3
05-04-2007, 12:42 PM
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Re: prop bet: picture cards on flop, who is the favourite?
[ QUOTE ]
A friend of mine was telling me about a prop bet he witnessed in a hold'em game. A professional player and another player were betting even money on whether a picture card showed up on the flop. The professional had the picture cards and the other guy had the rest of the deck. The professional seemed pretty sure he had the best of it, but me and my friend aren't so sure. Anybody out there able to explain to me who the favourite is in this match up? thanks. [/ QUOTE ] Haven't you ever had pocket tens? Do they ever hold up?
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