Is this profitable?

[TheRover]

Great story. Those were the plays that Slacker used to post here, iirc (?). Well after the lines had already been adjusted, of course.

I have nowhere near the bankroll to pay for donbest and have enough to bet to make up for the $600 a month and be profitable enough to spend all that time on it.

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, blindly betting teams at -110 is profitable if you get a full point most of the time, and at least a half-point all of the time.

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This is interesting. I might just track this for awhile with pen and paper (i.e. not betting it) and see what happens.

I could post the plays I come up with for you guys if there was enough interest.

[DougOzzzz]

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historically (ie 99-2005), youd need about 1.5 points at
-110 for +EV, if you want to just do this by rote. its doable (marginally), but youd need more than 4 outs, id think...

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1 point is plenty. Half a point is slightly +EV at reduced juice.

[DeucesUp]

youtalkfunny,

Thanks for the story and the insight. Very interesting and entertaining.

[Central Limit]

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I booked in Vegas for close to ten years, and never heard of any of this. Then I got an offer to come offshore, where I learned about this strategy the hard way.


[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do now? Still work at a book?

[youtalkfunny]

Haven't booked since I left Curacao in '02. Been in Mississippi since, dealing poker until a year ago, when I began to play poker fulltime.

I'm currently looking to get back into dealing fulltime. I'll play poker and bet sports as a part-time job, (the only things I can win at betting sports is halftimes, props, and my friend's NASCAR picks).

[Bulbarainey]

this is amazing... now I know what I want to do for my future career

[Central Limit]

youtalkfunny:

Okay, thanks. Very interesting story!

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
this is amazing... now I know what I want to do for my future career

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I ought to warn you of the downside. I didn't mention any of this in the long post, because, well, it was becoming an awfully long post.

1. You need a six- or seven-figure BR.

2. You're not the only guy out there clocking the donbest screen. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of other guys in this race to the new number. You're not just racing the bookies, you're racing the other steam chasers, as well.

3. Say goodbye to bonuses. Many books won't give bonuses to steam chasers. "We can get all the steam action we want for free. Why should we pay you for it?" Other books will boot you altogether.

4. If you start winning too much, the books give you this treatment: "No more picking us off on the website. If you want to bet more than $500 on something, you place your bets with us by telephone."

The first time the db screen lights up, you hit speed-dial, and get a clerk, who asks for your account number and password. As soon as he types that in, his computer screen turns red with an urgent message: "NOTIFY SUPERVISOR". Before he does anything else, you can hear him cover the receiver, and alert the nearby supervisor that YOU are on the phone.

Now you ask for the line on the New Mexico game. You can see they're +7 on the book's website, that's why you called.

While you're doing that, the supervisor is scouring his donbest screen, trying to figure out which game triggered your call. He finds it, just as the clerk is asking him, "He wants to know the line on the New Mexico game."

You refresh your screen. You can see this book still has +7, while everyone else in the world has moved to +6.

"Tell him it's six," you hear in the background. The clerk informs you that the line on New Mexico is +6.

You refresh again. Finally, their site shows a +6. "Pass," you tell the clerk.

You don't like it? Well, says the book, you don't have to bet with us, if you don't like it. How do you want your money, Neteller?

5. (You guys are gonna love this one.) Remember my previous example, the game where BW laid 2½, and the line went to -3½? BW's no fool, he knows his opinion moves lines drastically. So how can he take advantage of this knowledge?

You're sitting at your donbest screen. It starts chirping like a Geiger Counter. You see some mundane team getting steamed from -2½ to -3½. You grab what you can. Like a Kansas tornado, the world went from calm to frenzy to calm in about a minute. The numbers stop moving, the highlighted numbers return to normal. You take a deep breath and relax.

BEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEP!

Same game; OTHER TEAM! +3½, +3, +2½. BW FAKED YOU OUT! His guys took a small nibble on -2½. The bookmakers, knowing where the bet is coming from, overreact. The steam chasers overreact. All this overreaction drives the number up a full point--and THEN BW starts to scorch the earth with limit bets. He liked them at +2½, but with a little manipulation, he was able to get +3 and even +3½, for peanuts (the small bets he made on the fav to start this ruse).

[SunOfBeach]

therover's question referred to ncaa hoops, as did my answer.

[SunOfBeach]

this is wonderful, but i fear that some may get this confused and think that its the 1 point which leads to the profitability of this strategy, where in reality it is the combined equity from the point AND from being on the 'right side' (ie the syndicate's side) of the game. in essence, youre getting free picks (well, it really costs 600/month, i guess...) from those few people (the syndicates) who actually make money, and then betting those picks.