Could Someone Research This Angle

[David Sklansky]

All I know so far is that you guys are guessing and are as lazy as I am.

[Evan]

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All I know so far is that you guys are guessing and are as lazy as I am.

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Can I just clarify that you want someone here to research historical correlation between stock price and something as varied and esoteric as patent lawsuit decisions?

[David Sklansky]

yes

[Evan]

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yes

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Weird that it doesn't seem to be happening.

[IRuleYouHard]

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yes

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Weird that it doesn't seem to be happening.

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LMAO! Evan I take back all the bad things I ever said about you... ok I take that back too... I take back half of the bad things I ever said about you.

[lambdb]

I dont know how much bearing the lawsuit has regarding the status of these companies or how much traditionally the average SP goes up or down regarding an outcome..but you could more safely run a Call or Put through on both companies assuming you expected the outcome of the verdict to favor one company(call on one , put on the other). That would hedge your potential losses instead of straight shorting.
Not my area of expertise though.

[pig4bill]

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All I know so far is that you guys are guessing and are as lazy as I am.

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Wrong again. What I posted is a result of trading and following patent lawsuit plays like RMBS and RIMM and others. Simply finding lawsuit plays and finding what the stocks did afterwards is useless for the reasons I stated above. There are far too many variables surrounding lawsuits for anyone to conclude that the stock action is based on the lawsuit ending alone. So then you'd have to filter out the companies that were of any size to meet your criteria. The resulting sample size would be tiny. Then you'd have to research the circumstances around the lawsuit. After all that, I doubt you'd have more than a few examples, and making a conclusion that their stock action was due to "freeing up" of resources would be ridiculous.

[David Sklansky]

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All I know so far is that you guys are guessing and are as lazy as I am.

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Wrong again. What I posted is a result of trading and following patent lawsuit plays like RMBS and RIMM and others. Simply finding lawsuit plays and finding what the stocks did afterwards is useless for the reasons I stated above. There are far too many variables surrounding lawsuits for anyone to conclude that the stock action is based on the lawsuit ending alone. So then you'd have to filter out the companies that were of any size to meet your criteria. The resulting sample size would be tiny. Then you'd have to research the circumstances around the lawsuit. After all that, I doubt you'd have more than a few examples, and making a conclusion that their stock action was due to "freeing up" of resources would be ridiculous.

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Why are you using the term "stock action"? Did you realize that my hypothesis involves the actual earnings of the company a couple of years down the road?

[DcifrThs]

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All I know so far is that you guys are guessing and are as lazy as I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong again. What I posted is a result of trading and following patent lawsuit plays like RMBS and RIMM and others. Simply finding lawsuit plays and finding what the stocks did afterwards is useless for the reasons I stated above. There are far too many variables surrounding lawsuits for anyone to conclude that the stock action is based on the lawsuit ending alone. So then you'd have to filter out the companies that were of any size to meet your criteria. The resulting sample size would be tiny. Then you'd have to research the circumstances around the lawsuit. After all that, I doubt you'd have more than a few examples, and making a conclusion that their stock action was due to "freeing up" of resources would be ridiculous.

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Why are you using the term "stock action"? Did you realize that my hypothesis involves the actual earnings of the company a couple of years down the road?

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you realize this requires a fairly large amount of work, right? i mean not only do you have to find companies that have had litigation against & for them, you have to look at their situation at that time & in the recent past to get a sense for their legal position. you also have to dig into what you'd expect the effect of the lawsuit to be on their business & then test that hypothesis among as large a sample as can be gathered effectively.

thats a time consuming & leg work involved request that, save me getting my own intern, i don't think i'll be able to help you with.

overall though i think it is an interesting angle in terms of understanding more about the market in order to be more informed to analyze future picks. however, i dont think it woudl be useful to apply as a trading strategy on its own even if the historical research proves compelling.

Barron

[ahnuld]

It would be a good thesis paper for someone getting their PhD in finance