Investing Myths: Alpha and Beta

[Jeff W]

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Myth #2 – You can’t predict which managers will outperform.

They insist you buy your equity exposure via a relatively passive index, pay Vanguard’s moderately expensive indexing fees [when compared to BGI or SSgA] to purchase a market-weighted index, and guarantee that you underperform the SPX or Wilshire 5000. You guarantee yourself sub-market returns in perpetuity, but at least you’ll get a relative return that is close to ‘the market.’

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First of all, Vanguard ETFs are the cheapest ER in the business for every asset class they cover AFAIK.

Second, Vanguard has positive tracking error because of advanced management/transaction skill. For example, Vanguard's index funds outperformed their index by .9% after fees from 1996-2000. I wish I had more data, but I'm not that motivated.