Did Cho Seung-Hui give the GOP a belated Easter gift?

[slickpoppa]

Before this VA Tech incident I had been hopeful that the rather trivial issue, in the grand scheme of things, of gun ownership rights had finally receded into its rightful place as a footnote in political discourse. I am nominally pro-gun rights myself, but cringe at the thought of gun rights becoming a major issue because it is really just a distraction from much more pressing issues like the quagmire in Iraq, deficit spending, and the ballooning cost of entitlements. The are already more guns in this country than people, so no matter what the government does on either end of the spectrum, I really doubt that the government will be able to prevent good or bad people from obtaining guns. I hope Michael Moore and other liberals realize that making guns into a big issue will only be a boost to pro-Bush type candidates. My sense is that anti-gun mothers already vote for Democrats, but there are a lot of one-issue NRA voters who would be motivated to go out and vote for the GOP solely because of gun rights. A friend of mine who has worked on several Republican campaigns has told me how NRA guys are some of the most rabid activists out there.

Thoughts?

[ConstantineX]

Agreed. Plus notice how Albert Gonzales has been taken off the proverbial hot seat by the coverage. <3 America.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
Before this VA Tech incident I had been hopeful that the rather trivial issue, in the grand scheme of things, of gun ownership rights had finally receded into its rightful place as a footnote in political discourse. I am nominally pro-gun rights myself, but cringe at the thought of gun rights becoming a major issue because it is really just a distraction from much more pressing issues like the quagmire in Iraq, deficit spending, and the ballooning cost of entitlements. The are already more guns in this country than people, so no matter what the government does on either end of the spectrum, I really doubt that the government will be able to prevent good or bad people from obtaining guns. I hope Michael Moore and other liberals realize that making guns into a big issue will only be a boost to pro-Bush type candidates. My sense is that anti-gun mothers already vote for Democrats, but there are a lot of one-issue NRA voters who would be motivated to go out and vote for the GOP solely because of gun rights. A friend of mine who has worked on several Republican campaigns has told me how NRA guys are some of the most rabid activists out there.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're too far away from an election for this to have a tangible effect. Given that Congress is relatively split and there are many Blue Dog Democrats who have no intention of passing any kind of meaningful gun control bills at the federal level, I can't imagine this event will have any kind of political impact when voters head to the polls a year and a half from now. I doubt the Democratic leadership in Congress is particularly gung-ho about restrictive gun control legislation right now, either.

The usual suspects from liberal districts will introduce comprehensive gun control bills to throw a little red meat to their base, but these will almost certainly die in committee because the Democratic leadership won't go near it -- and we might see calls to renew the assault weapons ban that expired in 2004, but I'm not sure assault weapon bans drive many votes, outside of the activists who are almost certainly already voting GOP anyway.

As far as giving the GOP a temporary bounce, I suppose that's possible if gun owners feel particularly threatened and see the GOP as a potential ally, but again, I really doubt we're headed in that direction.

[latefordinner]

I think this issue (which will certainly blow over before the elections anyway) would likely bring out more Democrats.

Also, Michael Moore isn't exactly rabidly pro gun-control. Bowling For Columbine is pretty wide open in asking, but not answering, why the [censored] the US has so much gun violence.

[pvn]

I don't have anything to add here, I just wanted to post in your thread because your gordon gekko avatar is teh awesome.

[slickpoppa]

Dvault,

I agree we are too far from an election for this one incident to have a big effect, but if there is another school shooting in the next year, watch out. Then all of a sudden school shootings will be an "epidemic" and guns may be a very hot issue again. It could be an especially big issue in the Republican primaries depending on how Rudy molds his gun stance.

[slickpoppa]

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I don't have anything to add here, I just wanted to post in your thread because your gordon gekko avatar is teh awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]

ty ty

[mark_foley]

Maybe if it was this time next year leading up to the general election. I doubt one of the leading Democratic candidates will be calling for a handgun ban.

Although this could lead to a vote on the issue in the Senate and that would be bad news for Hillary and Obama. But I doubt it will happen.

[4 High]

I think Democrats have learned their lesson with Gun Control, and it will be a long time before the issue is seriously tackled on a national level again. I think they are content to let it play out in the states for now.

[nef]

[ QUOTE ]


-- and we might see calls to renew the assault weapons ban that expired in 2004, but I'm not sure assault weapon bans drive many votes, outside of the activists who are almost certainly already voting GOP anyway.



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Clinton credited the 1994 assault weapons ban as one of the major reasons the Dems lost the house. Assault weapons bans are often portrayed in the media as if they only affect a handful of gun owners, and that no hunter owns these types of weapons. This is pretty far from the truth, most gun owners have something that would be restricted by the current AWB bill in congress, H.R. 1022.

I am not sure how this will help the GOP. All three of the front runners for the GOP have lousy records on the 2nd Amendment, with Rudy being the worst. Mitt has been doing some major NRA ass kissing lately, he claimed to be a “lifelong hunter” even though mysteriously he has never bought a hunting license. He also made an appearance at the SHOT show, a gun / hunting trade show. I am glad R candidates recognize that we are a critical part of their base.

I am not sure, but I think that one area where D might lose votes if they passed major gun control is unions. Between hunting, shooting, and fundraiser banquets I meet many conservative union guys who vote D because of their union affiliation, even though their politics on most other issues is more aligned with traditional R platform. They also always claim that D’s won’t take our guns anymore.

Maybe one other thing that could be affected is the primary. A stronger candidate on the 2nd amendment and other hot issues (immigration) might be brought to the front of the debates because the popular candidates are weak in some of these areas.

Kucinich has introduced a handgun ban bill into congress yesterday, and McCarthy, the author of the current AWB bill, introduced a high capacity magazine ban yesterday.