AK 3$ Bubble

[WuTank]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t2460)
Hero (t3720)
UTG (t4940)
Button (t3880)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t3855</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t3295 (All-In).

Good,bad,spew?

Button was rather standard,but shoved 3 hands in the last 2 orbits.

[DannyNSandy]

Instant call

[Seeeno]

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Instant call

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#2

[Nikoms]

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Instant call

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All day...and twice on Sunday (bad players on Sundays)

[AMT]

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Instant call

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#2

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#7

[SlackerMcFly]

Call.

[Collin Moshman]

Hi WuTank,

I think this is a much less obvious call than some of the preliminary feedback suggests. What you are asking is the expected equity of a bubble call, and if we can put Villain on a pushing range, then ICM-based software will give us the equity.

So I plugged these stacks into SNG Power Tools and asked what hands are +Equity to call with here, assuming Villain has Average, Loose, or Maniac-like pushing ranges.

Average. Villain pushes 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+. Then the only +Equity calling hands here are JJ-AA.

(Note: I would actually label this a "Tight" pushing range for this particular situation, but let us stick with the software's labels for now.)

Loose. Villain pushes any pocket pair, any suited ace, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs+. Then you have a +Equity call with TT-AA and AKs.

Maniac. Villain pushes 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2s+, Q6o+, J9o+, J7s+, T8s+, 89s. Then you have a +Equity call with 99-AA, as well as AQ+.

I think this "Maniac" range probably fits your Villain's pushing range pretty well, in which case you gain some equity by calling here. The intuitive reason behind this general calling tightness is that you rarely want to be the one calling an all-in on the bubble, particularly when you are not the short-stack. This is because gambling for most or all of your chips with 0 fold equity is rarely correct when you have a decent stack and a non-monster hand.

Best Regards,
Collin

[Bubblefish]

I am not sure how valuable this is, but according to sngpt the equilibrium should be around:
Button push: 70%
SB calls: 19%
Hero calls: 7%

If this is the case then calling with AKo is +1,7%.

[phillitc]

I've been playing the 3$ turbos alot and woudl easily call this. Its because, people would do this with KJo...you can see this information concretely in programs like sngwiz or icm toolkit. If you play sngs, your way better off if you just invest in one of these programs...