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  #19  
Old 04-13-2007, 04:23 AM
dedor dedor is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Israel
Posts: 62
Default Re: calling all-in with AK (again)

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Easy call. Not close.

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it is close

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Realize that ICM doesn't come into the question in nearly the same way it did in your previous post. If you're not calling what you yourself say is quite possibly a resteal with AK, what _are_ you going to call with? QQ+ only? That's so exploitable it's not even funny.

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we all play to win. and I do realize it's not an ICM situation.

Lets look at the reasons for folding:

1. If we fold and the big stack win, the table will break up and i presumably wont have a big stack to my left. this will be a huge advantage for me. (a point mentioned by sethypooh21)
2. at best case I'm 72% favorite , if my read is correct and he is doing it with any 2 (live cards) so I am only 63% favorite, at worse case I'm 45% underdog. (lets assume he is not doing it with KK or AA).
3. Although my main concerns is the big stack , there are 2 all-ins here. this means that I need a much better hand to call this because the short stack might be doing this with an A or a K taking one of my outs.
4. my stack size will be still very good after folding ( 5 in chips out of 18 or 19).

now lets see the advantages of calling :

1. If we win we are becoming the big stack in the tournament.(first out of 19 or 18) with a good chance of winning 1-3.
note that if I take only the side pot ,I will have only a slight edge over the second stack. this doesn't increase my chances of making 1-3 by a lot.

the more I think of it , it looks like a sick fold to me.
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