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#19
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Easy call. Not close. [/ QUOTE ] it is close [/ QUOTE ] Realize that ICM doesn't come into the question in nearly the same way it did in your previous post. If you're not calling what you yourself say is quite possibly a resteal with AK, what _are_ you going to call with? QQ+ only? That's so exploitable it's not even funny. [/ QUOTE ] we all play to win. and I do realize it's not an ICM situation. Lets look at the reasons for folding: 1. If we fold and the big stack win, the table will break up and i presumably wont have a big stack to my left. this will be a huge advantage for me. (a point mentioned by sethypooh21) 2. at best case I'm 72% favorite , if my read is correct and he is doing it with any 2 (live cards) so I am only 63% favorite, at worse case I'm 45% underdog. (lets assume he is not doing it with KK or AA). 3. Although my main concerns is the big stack , there are 2 all-ins here. this means that I need a much better hand to call this because the short stack might be doing this with an A or a K taking one of my outs. 4. my stack size will be still very good after folding ( 5 in chips out of 18 or 19). now lets see the advantages of calling : 1. If we win we are becoming the big stack in the tournament.(first out of 19 or 18) with a good chance of winning 1-3. note that if I take only the side pot ,I will have only a slight edge over the second stack. this doesn't increase my chances of making 1-3 by a lot. the more I think of it , it looks like a sick fold to me. |
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