EPT Monte Carlo Trip Report (3rd and Final Part)

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GAAAHHHHH FOOLLLLDDDDDDDDD

[davidross]

Really interesting read Adam. It brought a lot of thoughts and emotions to my mind. I saw and talked to you apparently just minutes after the hand happened and you were like a person in shock.

Your story was actually a verification of something I talked about with several players over the course of the week, and that is that if we (I mean players who haven't played on TV much or had their hands seen and analized) have a considerable edge over the big names simply because we have a much better idea of how they play than they have of our game. You had a great idea of where you were in the hand, and Patrik was firing in the dark. He expected you would roll over like the dozens of other players he has done this to. I'm pretty sure if you two hook up again, this hand would play out very differently. And you'll be aware of that , and the game will be on again.

I haven't read the entire thread, too much for me to go through, but I gather you're getting a lot of different comments on your piece. I suspect if you read it again in 5 years you will wish you worded it differently, but that doesn't change the fact that you are a strong young player, who made a brilliant read and found the courage to act on it. Congrats.

Obviously if the cards were turned face up you'd call, there was already 18K in the pot as an overlay.

I can't agree with the people that say they'd call the all-in on the first hand with 22 vs AK though. I'm not saying no one should do it, but I think it would be a huge mistake for someone who plays like I do. By that I mean I don't wield a big stack much different from a small stack. Now someone like Antonius who is so good with a big stack would have more reason to try and get it,but since he seems to acquire a big stack every tournament anyway I don't see why he'd willingly take a 47% chance of busting.

[smallcardsbigpot]

Some people in this thread absolutely do not make sense here...

1) Adam was ahead of PA in the hand... why shouldnt he call?
2) 53% favorite and he only has to put in 39%? CALL!
3) PA is a good player... and its going to hard to get a better edge than this on him as he wont see pots until the river esp. with such a big PF raise.

I do see some points people are making here... but remember..this is poker, not chess... if you are ahead in the hand you should call.

Adam made the correct decision here and got the right reads... if he got the wrong read or had any doubt in his reads then he would have been wrong.

[Dexytp22]

Adam may be gloating a bit about the PA "amazing" comment. But, hey, what 20 something wouldn't gloat about that, I sure as hell would. Not to a large extent, but just enough to rub it in ha. Sick call though.

[kleath]

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Jurollo agreed it's a good start and gets at Patrik's postflop decision fairly well, but there's just no way he's equally likely to fourbet J3 clubs as AK clubs, for example. Preflop weightings have to be estimated/accounted for somehow.

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He may 4bet J3 more often than AK ur right

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There's 0 chance you are right. Because the weighting starts with the open raise. Even if he'd call the 3bet (OOP!) instead of 4 bet w/ AK some significant percentange, and would 100% 4 bet or fold J3s, he makes the first raise 100% of the time with AK and a small % of the time with J3. For every preflop action sequence other than fold initially, AK is a bigger part of the range than J3s.


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Except the information given is that he's opening 100% here, so I'd say it's extremely likely he'd 4bet J3 more than AK here.

[Bonified]

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1. The fact that it's used and advocated by Hellmuth (yes, the book did suck like a cheap whore), Brunson and Cloutier. These are arguably the three most succesful tournament players in the history of the game with a combined total of 26 WSOP bracelets and 135 WSOP cashes.

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I'm tired of hearing "these guys have more bracelets/experience/money than you so they're right and you're wrong". Ed Pellegrini has played more 10K events, cashed more times and grossed more money in them than me. That doesn't mean I have to fold AA on the bubble, does it ?

Plus, as others have pointed out, the three players mentioned won a lot of their bracelets when fields were smaller and weaker.

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I'd be willing to bet that most of the other highly successful tournament players take the same approach.

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I'm not so sure about that. But, seeing as my point is that I'd rather work it out for myself, it's irrelevant.

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Think of it this way. In Monte Carlo, Gavin finished the first day with only about 90% of an average stack and went on to win the whole event for 1.8 million euros. Chad Brown finished the first day with the chip lead at nearly five times the average stack. He finished 33rd for 23 thousand euros.

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That's a totally fallacious argument. There was only one chip leader at the end of day one. There were hundreds of players with average to good stacks. The fact that one of the hundreds won but the single chip leader didn't proves precisely zip. Sklansky has also put forward a good argument as to why early chip leaders rarely win, and it's nothing to do with "survival".

[Soulman]

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2. The most important goal of the first day is simply surviving.

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Your goal on day one, as should be your goal on any day, is to make +EV plays (be they +cEV or $EV, depending on circumstances). Why should survival be important?

[Soulman]

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Some people in this thread absolutely do not make sense here...

1) Adam was ahead of PA in the hand... why shouldnt he call?


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Because PA didn't flip over his cards so Adam knew for sure he was ahead?

[j_allstar]

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Jurollo agreed it's a good start and gets at Patrik's postflop decision fairly well, but there's just no way he's equally likely to fourbet J3 clubs as AK clubs, for example. Preflop weightings have to be estimated/accounted for somehow.

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He may 4bet J3 more often than AK ur right

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There's 0 chance you are right. Because the weighting starts with the open raise. Even if he'd call the 3bet (OOP!) instead of 4 bet w/ AK some significant percentange, and would 100% 4 bet or fold J3s, he makes the first raise 100% of the time with AK and a small % of the time with J3. For every preflop action sequence other than fold initially, AK is a bigger part of the range than J3s.


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Except the information given is that he's opening 100% here, so I'd say it's extremely likely he'd 4bet J3 more than AK here.

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This reasoning makes no sense at all.

[timex]

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My quick thoughts on the hand,hopefully my browser doesn't crash this time.

1. I don't think people understand how big an advantage Adam being unknown to PA is, espeically in position. Adam is no PA, but he's a strong enough aggressive player that he definitely has a big edge on PA in their first few encounters until PA figures out a bit about him.

2. I think there is a lot of value in just calling preflop and using your position to control pot size. You know a big move is coming soon but you are still in a very uncomfortable spot when he 4-bets.

3. The flop call may be marginally correct, I'm too lazy to stove it and obviously there are a lot of unknown frequencies involved. It may not be unreasonable to weight his range very very heavily towards a draw on the flop, but pair+flush draw has you killed. Having the Ac seems to help a lot though. However, Justin's point about him thinking you have AA/KK is a good one that there has to be some non-trivial chance he plays a big hand this way.

4. Most importantly, everyone, especially Adam, needs to stop making such a big deal about one hand, or even one day of one tournament. You said it yourself that there'll be lots of other hands and tournaments. In the big scheme of things one hand doesn't mean anything. You made a marginal call and happened to be right. Making a big call and being right is probably the best feeling in poker, so i understand your excitement, but everyone is blowing this way out of proprtion. Analyze the hand in some meaningful way like Justin was trying to earlier and learn what you can from it. The flaming and ego bs going on in this thread needs to stop though.

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You were a lot cooler when you were banned