Trickier Sit N Go Question

[DCJ311]

call, if sb raises and bb folds, you fold. if sb raises and sb calls, you call. the rest is easy

[RobNottsUk]

I'm going to presume it's a 10 seater, with starting tc 1,000. 1,800 tc are with shorties. That leaves each big stack with region of 4,100 each.

With AA, if the SB calls, BB folds. I can't be worse than 75:25 pre-flop (most likely much better than that on average). If I double, I've got good chances of 2nd place all of a sudden.

If SB folds, and BB calls, I'm very likely to make 3rd, with reasonable chances of 2nd.

Limping, against 2 random hands, and checking down, is too liable to lead to an awful mistake on the flop. Say SB has JT, and the flop is T-hi, now bets, BB folds, and now you have to decide wether your Aces are good, in a situation where you can be outdrawn and finish 4th if you call.

Whilst ICM may be best model available, I'm not sure the optimum play is to follow the herd, when everyone else is obeying it, or playing incorrectly according to it. I play in games, where ppl seek out folders for example. It doesn't help my results if I volunteer for the bubble, to be blinded away short-handed, knowing my raises have no fold equity. They may be playing "badly" but if I don't adjust then I'm playing even worse!