when giving free cards is better than betting vulnerable hands

[ceczar]

[ QUOTE ]

a+b+c

0,19*-57K+0,12*138K+0,69*300K = +234,390$ which is actually 9000$ less than going all in on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

using your formulation of the problem, but converting it to 2+2 favored form (where fold = 0) and correcting mistakes (i think):

108,000 in pot on turn. he has 97k left
if you get it in now, you gain 205k 77.27% of the time and lose 97k 22.73% of the time = 136.31k EV

if you check:
22.73% of the time you have to fold river = 0 EV
63.63% of the time you get allin on river = 205k EV
13.63% of the time a Q or J comes = X

here's the indifference equation:
22.73% * 0 + 63.63% * 205k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
130.45k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
X = (136.31k - 130.45k) / 13.63%
X = 43k

43k = 108k + BetSize * Call%

based on these numbers, even if he folded every time on the river you would gain money by checking the turn.

another way to put it:
by checking:
63.63% of the time all the money goes in anyway
22.73% of the time you save your remaining 97k
13.63% of the time you lose his remaining 97k when the scare card hits

clearly even if you check behind on the river when the Q or J comes you're better off by checking the turn

[innerpeace]

kala, thanks for providing the analysis.

i think, though, that your numbers/analysis is off. for example, i don't understand why you say i'm -57k for checking behind the turn and folding if the board pairs.

also, keep in mind that if i put my opponent on specific hands, then that accounts for two cards. so there are 44 cards left.

i see where your intuition is coming from, though it's incorrect. there is a tradeoff since 6 cards will scare villain. however, that is more than offset by the 10 cards that improve villain's hand. if you do the ev calculation with the correct probabilities then you will find that checking behind comes out ahead of pushing the turn.

also, i also expect villain will call a reasonable size bet on the river even if a q or j fall.

[ceczar]

[ QUOTE ]
kala, thanks for providing the analysis.

i think, though, that your numbers/analysis is off.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you agree with mine?

[innerpeace]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[/ QUOTE ]

generally, yes it's fantastic to get your money in as a huge favorite. i'm not arguing that pushing isn't profitable. however, i'm saying that checking the turn is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, even more profitable.

granted the circumstances / situation are a little unusual.
but, at the same time, the concept that you are better off checking a hand when your opponent has many outs to beat you is not something most poker players realize can be true.

[BKiCe]

daut talked about this concept in his blog not very long ago

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus this is terrible...

"checking allows me to steer clear of losing money the 20 percent of the time villain fills up."

His range is this tight?

"now i'm almost certain he has a set of aces, at worst a set of 10s."

[/ QUOTE ]

He put in 100 BBs on the flop; I'll buy it.

[innerpeace]

[ QUOTE ]

do you agree with mine?

[/ QUOTE ]

ceczar, very well put. i think your analysis makes the concept that much clearer.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[/ QUOTE ]

generally, yes it's fantastic to get your money in as a huge favorite. i'm not arguing that pushing isn't profitable. however, i'm saying that checking the turn is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, even more profitable.

granted the circumstances / situation are a little unusual.
but, at the same time, the concept that you are better off checking a hand when your opponent has many outs to beat you is not something most poker players realize can be true.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's akin to the idea of waiting for a safe turn to get allin. Just less often used.

[innerpeace]

[ QUOTE ]
Saying that he only has a set when he calls is a little absurd. I mean, any chance he's better than you? You have QJ. He could think you're bluffing, which you were on the flop... maybe you're getting leveled here

[/ QUOTE ]

darnold, note that it's a live game, so i have the advantage of seeing how villain reacts to my raise. based on that alone i was confident villain had a hand. villain also checked turn, so it's safe to say he wasn't setting up a turn bluff, which would be the only explanation for him calling with air. note as well that my raise size is pretty substantial which suggests he has a strong hand.

there is one other factor as well which i didn't mention in the original post. there were a couple of soft spots in the game, and i am pretty certain villain didn't consider me to be one. so, i don't think he's likely to get into a situation like this out of position with anything but a premium hand.

[Kala1928]

[ QUOTE ]
clearly even if you check behind on the river when the Q or J comes you're better off by checking the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Valuechecking is the new valuebetting.