EV and Variance

[BruceZ]

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So like, if your EV is $10/hr and your variance is $50/hr, what are the chances over a given 10 hours you'll make at least $100[/quote

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50%.

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or lose at least $100

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Essentially zero. Being $200 below average would be almost 9 standard deviations below the mean since the standard deviation is sqrt(50*10).

For a general win rate and standard deviation = sqrt(variance), use the method described in this post.


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Also, what is a reasonable variance for a TAG in llhe games?

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Around the beginning of the big poker boom, a reasonable standard deviation for a player winning 3 bb/100 hands in a full ring game was about 16 big bets for 100 hands, or a variance of 256 bb^2/100 hands. Since then the games have generally become first looser and then tighter, so use that to get an idea. For higher or lower win rates, scale the standard deviation proportionately.