$215 PP Speed: An Ah Haaaaa Moment

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
"Much of the math is based on your hand vs. a random hand"

Actually the math is based on your hand vs. a %range. This is very different than a random hand. If you stole 4 blinds in 2 orbits, then the fifth time you are thinking about shoving, you can assume that villain's %range to call will be greater and so the calcs adjust accordingly if you are able to adjust accordingly.

In addition, if you know that villain knows that you know, you should adjust villain's call range to be higher which causes your push range to be tighter. ICM is not broken (in this case) - it's the numbers that you put into it that are broken.

[/ QUOTE ]

wp.

[MEJG2]

[ QUOTE ]
Much of the math is based on your hand vs. a random hand"

Actually the math is based on your hand vs. a %range. This is very different than a random hand. If you stole 4 blinds in 2 orbits, then the fifth time you are thinking about shoving, you can assume that villain's %range to call will be greater and so the calcs adjust accordingly if you are able to adjust accordingly.

In addition, if you know that villain knows that you know, you should adjust villain's call range to be higher which causes your push range to be tighter. ICM is not broken (in this case) - it's the numbers that you put into it that are broken.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
it starts becomming a game of who can adjust faster.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Mark1978]

[ QUOTE ]

I guess my point is, mathmatically shoving makes sense on a per hand basis - but who cares if you stole 4 blinds in 2 orbits, if the fifth time you shove you get called by pocket JJ and your ATo doesn't catch another bullet?


[/ QUOTE ]

1. You won't get to the fifth round if you are not shoving before that.
2. ATo is often an unexploitable push.
3. They may call with JJ? OMG that means you only steal the blinds 97% of the time. Online SnGs are dead.