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#1
03-01-2007, 01:28 PM
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$215 PP Speed: An Ah Haaaaa Moment
This has been happening to me too often, so I played with SNGPT and learned something.
PartyPoker $215 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com UTG (t3920) CO (t3020) Button (t3580) Hero (t2500) BB (t6980) Preflop: Hero is in SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="red">Hero raises to t2100</font>, BB calls t1800 Flop: (t4800) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players) <font color="red">Hero bets t100 (All-in)</font>, BB calls t100 Turn: (t5000) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players) River: (t5000) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players) Putting the hands into SNGPT and hitting compute gives me a 3% edge for pushing. Normally, I say OK good play, bad luck. This time I put myself in villain's shoes and computed what hands he should call with if I shove 100%. Answer was 63%. Now back to my raise I put his calling range to 63% and I should only be shoving top 35% of hands (with 0.5% edge, obv more with 0%). At this buy-in, with villain being the best player remaining at the table, I now see that my shove was a donk move. TY Eastbay. 
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#5
03-02-2007, 01:06 PM
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Re: $215 PP Speed: An Ah Haaaaa Moment
Yeah I pushed a junk hand on BigJoe SB/BB once and sucked out, I noticed his calling range has adjusted ever since. I guess it starts becomming a game of who can adjust faster. And I am still playing catch-up.
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#7
03-02-2007, 01:34 PM
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Re: $215 PP Speed: An Ah Haaaaa Moment
[ QUOTE ]
Putting the hands into SNGPT and hitting compute gives me a 3% edge for pushing. Normally, I say OK good play, bad luck. [/ QUOTE ] Okay - I get ICM (to an extent) and SNGPT. But something that drives me crazy about the shovebot mentality: Much of the math is based on your hand vs. a random hand - which is true...in theory. In reality, you are always playing against someone (or someones) holding two actual cards. 34o is the second worst hands heads-up you can possibly play. Now, I also realize that the key here is FE - obviously, if he (or they) folds, it doesn't matter much. However, if villains see you shoving constantly, it's only a matter of time before they simply call you with a mediocre hand (or a good hand) that beats the rags you're shoving with. I guess my point is, mathmatically shoving makes sense on a per hand basis - but who cares if you stole 4 blinds in 2 orbits, if the fifth time you shove you get called by pocket JJ and your ATo doesn't catch another bullet? In SnGs, near/at the bubble, a shovebot is easy to spot. The only thing you have to figure out is what range they're shoving with, based on how often they go ai. The more often they shove, the greater the range. My point is simply that someone who uses ICM to decide when to shove is as easy to read as a TAG - you simply use your knowledge of ICM against them. One person was so obvious it was painful - shove with Ax, 3BB w/Kx. Needless to say, he 3BB, I had Ax, shoved, he called = I took his stack with neither improving.
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#8
03-02-2007, 01:38 PM
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Re: $215 PP Speed: An Ah Haaaaa Moment
[ QUOTE ]
you simply use your knowledge of ICM against them. [/ QUOTE ] So you think it easy to put people on ranges? What about when they start adjusting their ranges? While pushbotting might be easy to detect, figuring out what the proper move to do about it is much more difficult. In fact, some times people can be pushing ATC and there's nothing you can do but fold even when you have decent hands.
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#10
03-02-2007, 01:50 PM
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Re: $215 PP Speed: An Ah Haaaaa Moment
"Much of the math is based on your hand vs. a random hand"
Actually the math is based on your hand vs. a %range. This is very different than a random hand. If you stole 4 blinds in 2 orbits, then the fifth time you are thinking about shoving, you can assume that villain's %range to call will be greater and so the calcs adjust accordingly if you are able to adjust accordingly. In addition, if you know that villain knows that you know, you should adjust villain's call range to be higher which causes your push range to be tighter. ICM is not broken (in this case) - it's the numbers that you put into it that are broken.
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