math question and the effect on over/under percentages..please help

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I want to use the goaltender for THAT particular game. If Goalie #1 gives up 3.09 goals per game, he would be 118.39% ABOVE the average for the team.

Therefore, the team would theoretically give up more shots and the game would go OVER more often than average.

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This is not necessarily true. The goalie could (and most likely ) just gives up more goals with an equal # of shots because he is not as good. Your point on the game going over more is valid though.

This would be a VERY time consuming process, but can't you just look up the goalie for each game and use all those games as the average for the team, instead of saying that he gives up x% more then the total average.

I know you're using a variant of my system, but IMO you're making it WAY too complicated. You're on a slippery slope here, if you're going to break the games down so far as each goalie being used, why don't u consider the quality of the ice at game time, the referees in the game, and other IMO not so important factors that play into each game.

I understand that different goalies will effect the outcome, but for all that work you have to do to come up with these stats, I don't think it will raise your ROI enough to justify the extra work.