|
|
#21
02-07-2007, 12:32 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
Easy fold if the player is solid. No way he has an overpair unless he's terrible. Best case he has a big draw an you are about even money. Worst case you are drawing damn near dead.
|
|
#22
02-07-2007, 12:35 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold if the player is solid. No way he has an overpair unless he's terrible. Best case he has a big draw an you are about even money. Worst case you are drawing damn near dead. [/ QUOTE ] I like how you factor the fact that he is getting 2:1+ on his money into your analysis...
|
|
#23
02-07-2007, 01:13 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
I think that it is prob a call at this point since you are getting 2-1, but you areplaying above your normal level so if you want to reduce variance i dont think you are givig away too much EV by folding. Also since this is such a close situation i think you need to give a bit more info.
Which are the hearts on the board? not a huge deal but if you have something like 8h4c then you can rule out an Ah8h type hand. Has the game been passive with a lot of limpers? would someone open limp with with a suited T8? again factor in the suits you have and one on board as there may be only one possible suited T8. How the game has played thus far might also give you more insight into the likelyhood of limping with TT since that is the most set. I dont think AA or KK would limp and then check flop to make a huge push after a CR, so i dont think those should factor into villains range. A read on the other players would also be helpful as it might let you eliminate one T, making 3 possible combintions for sets, or to believe that 2 flush outs are dead. Not that this makes a huge difference but in a close situation like this every bit counts.
|
|
#25
02-07-2007, 02:38 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
rbk, fsu, do you guys simply play 100% of your hands from the small blind? [/ QUOTE ] it's 8 ways and it's live poker. this is a far cry from your proposed absolute.
|
|
#26
02-07-2007, 02:42 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] rbk, fsu, do you guys simply play 100% of your hands from the small blind? [/ QUOTE ] it's 8 ways and it's live poker. this is a far cry from your proposed absolute. [/ QUOTE ] I would rather play 84o short-handed than 8 ways, is my thinking on this point flawed? I would also rather play it on the button fwiw. I play pretty tight from the blinds. Is that bad?
|
|
#28
02-07-2007, 03:27 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Easy fold if the player is solid. No way he has an overpair unless he's terrible. Best case he has a big draw an you are about even money. Worst case you are drawing damn near dead. [/ QUOTE ] I like how you factor the fact that he is getting 2:1+ on his money into your analysis... [/ QUOTE ] OK, lets factor it in. If its 50:50 we're slightly better than even money or drawing near dead, then it becomes a coinflip as you said (about the 33% expected win rate needed to break even). I think we're likely in worse shape than that in terms of likely holdings, hence to me it's a fold.
|
|
#29
02-07-2007, 11:13 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Results
I had been leaning toward a fold, but after his "Absolutely" comment I was now 50/50 on what to do.
I thought for another minute, then I picked up my money and started counting it to see how he would react. He seemed very uncomfortable, and combined with his comment, that made me decide to call. He had AA. I won. It's interesting to me that the responses range from "easy fold" to "easy call." I don't think there is anything easy about this decision, I think it is pretty close (against a known solid opponent I would probably fold pretty quickly, but that was not the case here, and I also had what I thought was a pretty good read on him not wanting a call).
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
