Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.

[gerilege]

I'm a FL player, so sorry if my post is too trivial. I was invited to a $20 buy-in private tourney (38 players), and I judged the field a typical $20 one, and considered myself one of the weaker players.

13 players remaining, 9 places pay, but this was rather a prestige tourney, so I wanted to get as high as possible rather than reaching the bubble.

Blinds 75/150, our table is 6-handed.

UTG (7050)
UTG+1 (Hero) (2910)
CO (3800)
Button (5980)
SB (8200)
BB (2400)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 450, CO calls, all fold.

Pot: 1125
Hero has: 2460
CO has: 3350
Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero???

My questions:
-In general, should I play AJs in this spot preflop? If yes, how much would you raise preflop?
-How to play the flop and what is my plan for the rest of the hand?
I was confused, because if I bet, I think I will only be called by a better hand. But if I check, and try to induce a bluff, I won't have any idea about my opponents hand.

I would appriciate any feedback.

[beenben]

PF - Generally, you want to bet 3x the BB. AJ is pretty strong six handed and your effective stack/blind ratio (M) is lower when it's six handed so you need to be aggressive. However, here your M is b/t 6 and 7 and your effective M, due to being only six handed, is actually just over half that so here you should've pushed pre-flop.

as played - you need to make a continuation bet. generally, you do this to continue your pre-flop aggression, to maintain control of the hand, and to avoid giving away free cards (this is a drawtastick board with 2 clubs, 3 high cards, and a few str8 possibilities). you hit the flop with top pair and your kicker is pretty good and you've got the backdoor str8 possibility so you're going to push all in on that flop.

[registrar]

Six-handed you've got to play AJs. Flop is messy and I probably check call flop, check/? turn. I can't see a single worse hand calling a flop bet. There aren't any realistic club draws - villain shouldn't really be calling EP raising SS with SCs.

[Secret Squirrel]

- Preflop: I'd play AJ here and open for a similar amount.

- Flop play: It is a frightening board but you still have to put a bet out here. You are very likely to have the best hand. Bet 2/3 of the pot- about 700 and see what happens. If he puts you all in a call would be read dependent- I'd be inclined to fold but I'd hate it. The turn is always tricky if he flat calls. My plan would be to push if a blank comes.

[Secret Squirrel]

[ QUOTE ]
PF - Generally, you want to bet 3x the BB. AJ is pretty strong six handed and your effective stack/blind ratio (M) is lower when it's six handed so you need to be aggressive. However, here your M is b/t 6 and 7 and your effective M, due to being only six handed, is actually just over half that so here you should've pushed pre-flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

stack 2900
blinds 225
players 6

M= approx 8

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
you still have to put a bet out here. You are very likely to have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

Do we fold out a better hand? Never.
Do we get call from a worse hand? Very rarely.
Are we scared of giving a free card? If villain has clubs and isn't a total moron, he has the best hand.

The only worse hands we're getting action out of here are low suited club connectors, JJ and KK. Given the J in our hand and pre-flop, none of these are very likely.

It's sucks that being OOP means that if villain also has AJ he probably wins this pot over three streets, but that can't be helped.

Of course, this is opponent dependent. Villain might be a complete spaz and read a check as us not having an ace rather than a totally reasonable play on this board with any holding but even then check calling the flop is still better than betting.

[gerilege]

I don't think pushing is a good idea, because a worse hand will never call, but if my opponent folds after pushing, he would probably also fold to the contbet.

Assuming that a worse hand will never call, a 700 continuation bet should win here approximately two times out of five to break even.
My equity is the following with the below ranges:

QQ-77,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ 54%
QQ-77,AQs+,AQo+ 53%
QQ-77,AQs+,AKo 58%

(Those who are missing AA-KK, including those hands would increase my equity in overall because I hold an ace [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
I think in this hand these numbers are quite close to the real chances of having the best hand on the flop. So let's assume that my opponent will fold 5 or 6 times out of ten. Then I make 5 or 6 *1125 on this hand if he folds.
If he pushes to my contbet, I fold(?), and I lose the 700.
What is my plan if he simply calls? If I simply check/fold turn, than I lose 700. Assuming that I always fold when my contbet doesn't work, my EV is around 200-250 chips / contbet on the long run.
But if I check the flop, he will probably also bet weaker hands on the flop than he would bet on the turn after he called my flop bet and I checked. And if I'm ahead, he probably has max 4 outs to beat me.
What about inducing a bluff here? He will probably bet 80% of the time when I check, and a free card doesn't seem to be a catastrophe. And when he checks, I can go ahead on the turn.

Do you think that the fact that he will bet more hands than he will call with might ever outweight the chance of winning the money that is already in the pot in this situation?

[betgo]

Preflop, you have to play the hand. How much you raise depends on teh table and your style.

Once you bet the flop, I don't think you can fold. You have a gutshot as well as top pair.

[stjohnychan]

This is a nice subtle little hand.

I'd agree that you have to play AJs here. Six handed (5 really, because UTG folded) you've gotta feel pretty good going in. The 3x the big blind raise is pretty standard and I don't think anyone's going to argue w/ that..

The flop is where it gets interesting. You don't have any read on your opponent by this point? I would think that almost 2/3rds of the way through a tourny you need to have seen at least a couple show downs from the villain. Is he what Registrar calls "a complete spaz"? In my experience at this limit, even this far in a tourny there are plenty of those. So has he ever shown down some paint like KQ or even an underpair? Or, if he's not a spaz but just trying too hard: How many hands has he been playing recently/how aggressively? Have you seen him try to use position before? If he thinks he can take a pot based on late position I think that loosens up his call requirements. Many people tighten up this close to the bubble, and if he's a decent player he may be trying to take advantage of that.

So what's your move on the flop? It's weird, I agree w/ most of the analysis above but reach a different result. I think most times Hero bets, Villain correctly folds all the worse hands and either calls or raises all the better hands. And as they say, poker is about inducing mistakes from your opponent, so any move likely to induce a correct play can't be the best option.

But like you say: he is going to take a stab at this pot if you check. Again, I'd like some read based on his past play to back up your 80% stab rate here, but knowing nothing but the situation that sounds reasonable. So, since I agree w/ Beenben and some others that you're committed to this hand, and I agree w/ you Villan's gonna stab at it I say check and then push all in.

The other argument for this is your Q. I know it's the weaker force but I think it's important this near the bubble. If you let the hand go passively here you'll have 2460 chips-- basically tied for last place at your table. You're also heading into the blinds the next two hands. So unless you get some cards the next two hands or the table goes passive, you'll be in last place, 4 of the other 5 players at the table will have twice your stack, and you'll basically be reduced to one and a half move poker. This is not a good place to be, especially because you said your ambition was to reach as high as possible- rather than hanging on into the money.

In your post I think the key was when you said "if I check...I won't have any idea of my opponents hand." This shows even more clearly then your later 80% that you beleive your opponent is gonna push with anything he called your earlier bet with. I'd definitly check here and plan on going all in...

(Also, one stupid question-[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]- what is FL? I looked in the Acronym Dictionary and coudln't find it).

[gerilege]

I don't have any read, I was moved to the table a few hands ago, and I haven't seen him playing a single hand.

FL is fixed limit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I rarely play any tourneys, but I have a bit of experience in reading boards like that holding AJs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But you know the tricky possibility that enables the players to raise more than a small or a bigbet confuses me...

Definitely a double-edged sword here. I agree that if I would like to commit myself to the hand, I should rather do that by checking first.
I assume that you would call an all-in here after checking? But would you always push after your opponent bet? Or would you let your opponent continue bluffing by just calling his flop bet? (If it's not an all-in bet of course...)