Is this possible?

[R.B.]

There is some guy who sent his winnings from last 4 months. He bets on gamebookers and he pasted the screenshots of his winning bets. I'm asking you, how do these stats seem to you?

Payed in : 1600 euros
Payed Out : 4200 euros
Profit : +2600 euros

What is the number of bets I don't know, because he sent only the winning ones. So here is the info regarding winning bets:

Number of bets : 48
Payed in : 480 euros (so probably the number of nonwinning bets is around 120)
No singles.
No doubles.
His typical bet consists of 7,8 events.

Is he the luckiest person on the planet or what? To be honest, I don't believe that. Whoever has experience with Gamebookers, tell me, what proof could I ask, that would clear the doubt?

(I know about variance, yeah, but it seems just too much to me. So I'm asking experts to tell how probable it is to make 170 bets with combined 7-8 events each and have return on investment that big)

[livin_a_lie]

Try again, English please.

[R.B.]

I'm sure everything can be understood. If you want to be funny, try again, please. If you want to be helpful, ask which part do you not understand. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[4Tay]

It's not impossible. He could've won a few long-shot parlays. You never know. Could've gotten really lucky.

[brendanb438]

You are saying he made 170 bets consisting of 7 to 8 events/teams? So parlays? Your post doesn't make much sense to me either. You are guessing he won 28% of his bets?

I give up you confused the [censored] out of me too.

-Brendan

[R.B.]

[ QUOTE ]
You are saying he made 170 bets consisting of 7 to 8 events/teams? So parlays? Your post doesn't make much sense to me either. You are guessing he won 28% of his bets?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that's what I'm saying. He bet 170 of parlays like this one:

Dunfermline-Rangers: 2 @ 1.35
Benfica-Uniao Leiria: 1 @ 1.4
EC Salzburg- Graz 99ers: 1 @ 1.2
Ajax Amsterdam-Utrecht: 1 @ 1.25
Udinese-Messina: 1 @ 1.5
Valladolid-Numancia: 1 @ 1.7
Standard Liege-SC Lokeren: 1.33

6.27 Euros × 9.61 = 60.25 won

or

Parma-Internazionale: 2 @ 1.55
Barcelona-Real Zaragoza: 1 @ 1.4
NO Hornets-LA Clippers: 2 @ 1.37
Hannover96-VfB Stuttgart: 2 @ 2.1
Osasuna-Real Madrid: 2 @ 1.8
Samdporia-Chievo: 1 @ 1.8
Midtjylland-Viborg: 1 @ 1.65
RK Gold Club-Hammarby IF: 1 @ 1.3
Armani J.-Climamio BO: 1 @ 1.36
Arsenal-Liverpool: 1 @ 2
Palermo-Torino: 1 @ 1.45

And he won 30% of them. Is he a luckbox or what? Actually those four months were last 4 months of 2006. The first parlay (the one worth 60.25 euros) happened only few days ago. On 21st January he bet 5 parlays and won all of them, earned 500 euros. So if he is a luckbox, he just can't run out of luck?

[Lori]

He's almost certainly lying, if not he's been exceptionally lucky OR the parlays overlap and he's just run okay.

If he picked 10 teams and did all the combinations, and then hit all 10, he'd have a huge number of 8-way parlays win.

IF you get hold of all of his bets, calculate the rate betting all the singles, try to forget the fact that they were parlays.

IF you really really think this guy is winning and nobody here can persuade you otherwise, bet the games individually for small stakes.

Lori

[freewheeler]

touts = douchebags

forget about it

[R.B.]

[ QUOTE ]
He's almost certainly lying, if not he's been exceptionally lucky OR the parlays overlap and he's just run okay.

If he picked 10 teams and did all the combinations, and then hit all 10, he'd have a huge number of 8-way parlays win.

IF you get hold of all of his bets, calculate the rate betting all the singles, try to forget the fact that they were parlays.

IF you really really think this guy is winning and nobody here can persuade you otherwise, bet the games individually for small stakes.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the reply. BTW, I have better feeling for what can be done in betting world now. A friend of mine works for a major online bookers site and he got me a list of top 100 earners in last 3 months (and last 24 months). Of course, this is not exactly legal, so you'll understand, if I don't disclose details. Anyway to make it short - amongst top 100 members with highest profit in last 24 months, who have at least 150 bets, the highest margin is 63%. The guy I was telling you about, has 162% so I think he is full of it.

Of course, it's not ENTIRELY impossible, because #14 on the list s a guy who has bet 110 times and has margin of 683% [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
The biggest earner on the site has a margin between 2 and 3%, but he has bet several million euros.