When to take coinflips?

[robinmbuk]

I have just started playing (very) low limit HU NL SNGs, and have a question regarding coinflip situations.

I regard coinflips to be pp vs overcards pf, 2 overcards + flush draw on the flop, and oesfd on the flop.

I remember I once read that if you belive your skill is such that you are around a 65% favourite to win when playing heads up, you should avoid coinflip situations (when playing for stacks) because you are effectively decreasing your edge from 65% to 50%.

So when should you take coinflips? What considerations other than skill are there (e.g. blind level, stack sizes, pot size).

I ask this because I recently played a HU SNG in which it soon became apparant that I had a fairly large edge over my opponent. After about 5 mins I had a 3 to 1 chip lead, and I flopped a flush draw with my Ah9h on a ten high flop.

He bet, I raised, he shoved. I knew he could easily do this with any pair / any draw, so I thought ITLR it'd probably work out as a 50/50 coinflip (sometimes he'd be drawing almost dead with a worse flush draw, sometimes he may have me crushed with a set, but more often than not I have two overs to his pair plus the nut flush draw).

In this situation I took the coinflip and lost. Although I went on to win the match I couldn't help thinking I should have folded, as my edge over him was bigger than the 50/50 I took calling his push.

Does it make a difference that I still had a slight chip lead even if I called and lost?

[ORTOM]

If you think you're 50/50 in this situtation, call because of the money that's already in the pot. If the player is really bad, he could have absolutely nothing, putting you at well over 50/50.

More details about this hand, specifically blinds, stacks, and amount raised would help us analyze it. If you dont' currenlty keep track of these things, spend the 50 for poker tracker.

[jay_shark]

What Ortom said .

[The_Bankroll]

it depends on how on deep you guys were playing. If any person has less than 10BB, i'm ready to flip. also, since you were a 3:1 chiplead, and you believe that you are a 65% fav. to win, you are actually increasing your edge by taking the flip

50% you win the flip, and the game
50% you lose the flip, chip stacks are equal
--65% of that time, you still go on to win

So taking the flip here would give you about an 80% chance to win overall.

[creedofhubris]

These are the kinds of decisions you want your opponent to be making, so in the future try to be the one pushing, not the one calling.