Variance

[Josh W]

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I wonder if Josh thinks he could lose 1200BB's playing live?

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Do I think **I** could? No, I don't. But I also have a SICK expectation live, the games are so much softer. I mean, I'm talking like 4 or 5BB/100h over many thousands of hours.

I mean, somebody (a hypothetical somebody) who had a winrate of 10BB/100h online probably can't go on a 1000BB downswing, either. (I mean, I had a winrate of like 3BB/100h over a few hundred thousand hands at 30-60 before my downswing....it would take a SICK winrate to be able to be 'certain' that a 1000BB downswing will never hit you)

That said, I do think that there are people who play online and win that could lose 1200BB live, because they just aren't suited for that type of play. There is much more "reading players", the tilt is different, the "boredom" that many online players experience when they play live is enough to thwart many of their A games. Ya know, 6 or 8 tabling, it's tough to go more than a few minutes without playing a hand. But when you are playing live and haven't seen a flop for like 30 minutes, then T8s looks more appealing, as does A5o, threebetting a tight player w/ KJ, etc. These afflictions could easily derail a solid winning online player's A game.

I hope this makes sense.

Josh