$0.75/$1.5 200bbs deep. Extracting max value from rivered nuts

[Rasmus]

This is about 20 hands in. I have been raising a lot and he hasn't played back at me yet. I've 3-bet him once where he folded.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.75/$1.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
2 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BTN: $290.85
Hero (SB): $306.3

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">BTN raises to $4.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $13.50</font>, BTN calls $9

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($27, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $20</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $65</font>, Hero calls $45

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($157, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

<font color="black">River:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($157, 2 players)

As I see it I have 4 options:
1) Value bet $80-$115
2) Value bet $115-$160
3) Overshove
4) Check raise

I think 1 works if he has a pair. I doubt he raises the flop much with a pair though. The only pair I think he could have is kings. He raises the flop with air and now has some showdown value once he hits the turn.

I really don't like 2 as I think I don't get enough value from pair hands and not enough value from better hands.

Overshove works good if he has an ace or better because he's calling like 99% of the time whereas if I just bet $135ish he might just flat call with trips no kicker. If he has a boat he's obviously calling.

How likely is he to check the turn behind with a weak ace? AT-AQ? Does he check turn behind with a set or two pair?
How often does he raise this flop with an ace?

Check raising could also be good I think. If he raises the flop with air and got scared of my call he might stab again at the river. How often does he have air on this river? Will he value bet if he has a king?

[ORTOM]

I agree with your analysis. I don't think a king would call even option one, unless villian is really bad. Any ace is calling a shove here since it was happy enough to call the substantial turn bet. Obviously a boat is calling a shove.

[GoldenIP]

I think you're either getting his entire stack or nothing at all. After my first eleventy billion HU hands, I realised there's nothing worse than my opp checking behind on the river when I have the stone cold ones. I like slowing down on the turn but checking the river hoping he'd take a stab at it simply doesn't happen enough to warrant it IMO. It's very opponent specific. If you're playing a maniac, sure, trying checking but anyone less than that, make a bet. Then you can say at least you tried...

I'd shove. I don't think he's calling with anything less than a damn good second best hand.

[GoldenIP]

P.S I wouldn't make either of your value bets because, given the texture of the board, a value bet will look exactly that. On any other board you may well get a call but on that one, you know it's a scary board for him and he'll be thinking the same for you. As soon as he sees a value bet, he'll think, "He's either a damn strong player and made a wicked good bluff" or "Oh, a value bet on this paired board...that screams nizzuts"

To reiterate: Shove 95%; Check (hoping for a bet) 5%

I don't think a v-bet has any disguise equity. At least a shove has a chance at appearing like a bluff. At least at $300 level.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
I like slowing down on the turn but checking the river hoping he'd take a stab at it simply doesn't happen enough to warrant it IMO. It's very opponent specific. If you're playing a maniac, sure, trying checking but anyone less than that, make a bet. Then you can say at least you tried...

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis I dont think I ever check here. Your hand range is very small if hes reading. That said I think villain's hand range is very small also, I think on the flop his hand is defined as AT+, A8s, A2s, 22, 88, AA or (rarely IMO) air.

I like your line a lot actually checking the turn seems very good to me so the only question is how to extract the most from the above range. I think all the boats are going to push or pot commit themselves no matter what bet you put out. So basically how to get the most money out of AT+ (I think he has a K here very rarely).

IMO putting out a 1/2 pot 'blocking' type bet is the most likely to get pushed over by a hand like AQ or AJ if villain is hand reading. If villain is incapable of getting away from AT+ obviously pushing is best but if he is capable of getting away from AT and AJ here I think the blocking bet is best and likely will get raised if he understands hand reading and what a block bet is.