New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread

[DougOzzzz]

I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone comment on one of the biggest game-changing plays of this game.

I'm talking about the end of the Jets opening drive of the 2nd half. The Jets had the ball inside the 3 yard line, less than 2 to go on 4th down. They trailed by 7. And they kicked a FG??? Not only was this easily -EV from a points perspective, but the situation made it 10 times worse. The value of a TD was easily more than 2.333 times greater than the value of a FG. even if the Jets fail to get the 1st down or TD, they would barely be in worse shape with the Pats pinned at the 2 yd line up 7 than they would have been kicking off trailing by 4.

this decision IMO kept the Jets from ever really threatening. I'm shocked that so bad a call hasn't been brought up by anyone else either here, at FO, or anywhere else I've checked.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
Top 5 toughest positions:

O-Line(C-T-G in that order)
QB
CB
FB
DT

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with this with only one change - blind side tackle being the hardest position.

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone comment on one of the biggest game-changing plays of this game.

I'm talking about the end of the Jets opening drive of the 2nd half. The Jets had the ball inside the 3 yard line, less than 2 to go on 4th down. They trailed by 7. And they kicked a FG??? Not only was this easily -EV from a points perspective, but the situation made it 10 times worse. The value of a TD was easily more than 2.333 times greater than the value of a FG. even if the Jets fail to get the 1st down or TD, they would barely be in worse shape with the Pats pinned at the 2 yd line up 7 than they would have been kicking off trailing by 4.

this decision IMO kept the Jets from ever really threatening. I'm shocked that so bad a call hasn't been brought up by anyone else either here, at FO, or anywhere else I've checked.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the Patriots were in the same spot, it would've been a bad call kicking the field goal. But the Jets simply don't have a real running back. Kicking the field goal was the right move with this team.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone comment on one of the biggest game-changing plays of this game.

I'm talking about the end of the Jets opening drive of the 2nd half. The Jets had the ball inside the 3 yard line, less than 2 to go on 4th down. They trailed by 7. And they kicked a FG??? Not only was this easily -EV from a points perspective, but the situation made it 10 times worse. The value of a TD was easily more than 2.333 times greater than the value of a FG. even if the Jets fail to get the 1st down or TD, they would barely be in worse shape with the Pats pinned at the 2 yd line up 7 than they would have been kicking off trailing by 4.

this decision IMO kept the Jets from ever really threatening. I'm shocked that so bad a call hasn't been brought up by anyone else either here, at FO, or anywhere else I've checked.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the Patriots were in the same spot, it would've been a bad call kicking the field goal. But the Jets simply don't have a real running back. Kicking the field goal was the right move with this team.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, so what would the break even success rate be, in your opinion?

[Needle77]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Top 5 toughest positions:

O-Line(C-T-G in that order)
QB
CB
FB
DT

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with this with only one change - blind side tackle being the hardest position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Theres a reason I didn't say blind side Tackle, I thought about it for a second but Centers have it toughest. As JoA noted, they make all the line calls. They have to snap/block in one swift moment. Centers have to have the ability to read defenses just as well, if not better, than QB's. Centers are facing DT's/LB's/SS's in a game, LT's are facing DE's and your occasional OLB. Centers are in the middles of every rushing play, all plays on the other side of the line, the LT only has one job, cutoff(that means you can cut a crashing DE oryou just go to the 2nd level immediately and wack a weakside OLB/Safety. Centers occasionally pull, tackles seldom pull.

I could go on for a while. But the toughest job for a LT? He is going against the other teams best pass rusher...with possible help from their RB's!! Don't get me wrong though, it's still a very difficult position, and all O-lineman have it harder than most people realize.

BTW: Centers have to block lineman that are bigger than them, and LT's block players smaller than them...ok, now I'm stretching. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Thremp]

Needle,

I'm not buying the O-Line fanboyism. QB needs to know too many other assignments and the physical aspect is a complete wash.

[Needle77]

Thremp,

It's very close.

O-line
QB


CB

FB
DT

Thats how I would rank it because that is as close as it can be. But, QB's about 50% of the time only hand the ball off which is simple steps. If you are talking about knowing routes, well when you call a play it tells you the routes in the play the majority of the time. If cl8on were around he could answer the question about QB-WR's better, because he is a WR coach at JMU.

I just can't give it to the QB because his involvement is only 50% of the plays. Are they the most important player? Yes, they are. But I just don't see it as most difficult. Hell, alot of QB's even in the NFL, get their audibles from the sidelines, or it's an automatic check depending on the defense's call. There are few QB's that have the complete reigns to an offense.

It could be fanboyism, but it is just my opinion. That and QB's do nothing in practice other than practice their steps, we have to hit on every play, does that count for anything?

[Needle77]

On second thought, I will agree if you want to say they are interchangable. I guess it's a little bit more filmwork and bookwork than any other position. I guess it might be that I've played with quite a few inept QB's in my time and that might change my mind if they had been better. But I will definitely agree if you say that they are interchangable depending on each play.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone comment on one of the biggest game-changing plays of this game.

I'm talking about the end of the Jets opening drive of the 2nd half. The Jets had the ball inside the 3 yard line, less than 2 to go on 4th down. They trailed by 7. And they kicked a FG???

[/ QUOTE ]

I just rewatched the game and agree that was a crucial point. It looked like Mangini was considering going for it- he called the kicker back and asked for a measurement- which may have adversely affected his decision (since you never see measurements for that distance, the chains made it look like a mile).

From a pure EV standpoint, I think you're correct. But from a "feel" point of view, the Jets were NOT going to pick that up. I know they had ostensibly just driven down the field, but it was hardly dominating- mostly reverses and quick underneath passes, a Bruschi late hit PF, and a quick-snap trap play; even the last completion that put them inside the 5 went off TWO Pats defenders before being caught.

As to what the breakeven success rate would have to be, that's an interesting question. You would think Mangini, knowing his team was inferior on paper, might welcome the variance. But his gameplan seemed to be to try to stay within a score, and hope they could get enough breaks to win it late.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
The greatest irony of this game is that Brady is playing almost identical to Manning. He's focusing on the underneath stuff and letting the running game win the game. The drive has stalled out a couple of times and they've had to settle for field goals. He's left points on the field with a few bad decisions.


[/ QUOTE ]

I did a drive level analysis and it is scary how close they look.

I will skip the obvious metrics that are available, but

Brady:
1-5 yard completions: 6
6-9 yard completions: 6
10-20 yard completions: 9
>20 yard completions: 1
First Downs Passing 10
2 TD's
64.7% Completion %
YPA 6.32

Manning:
<0 Yard (blown up screens) 4
1-5 yard completions: 2
6-9 yard completions: 13
10-20 yard completions: 9
>20 yard compleitons: 2
First Downs Passing: 14
TD's 1
INT's 3


I did a Brady rating right before halftime. He was 13/22/124/0/0 78 rating. I assumed that they would get the 1 yard on the ground on the first two plays. When they were stuffed and they were put in the must pass situation and he got the 1 yard TD, the 14/23/125/1/0 turned it to a 93 rating - 1 play, 1 yard 15 points, because the running back couldn't get the job done.

It is amazing how the ball bounces. If they have a groundhog cam and somehow see that Law doesn't get the 2nd pick, Manning's rating goes up 12 points. If Dallas Clark goes to the right of the end zone on the 2nd drive like he was supposed to and PM can throw it to him, he gets the 15 rating points. a couple of passes bounced off of the hands and jersey's of the guys in green and white today - but it evens out over a season (He got 4 against Indy the 1st time of which maybe 2 were actually his fault).

Just amazing that the games look so similar in terms of efficiency and the lengths of the passes, going underneath, etc., but the post game analysis on TV has been 180 degrees the other way.