2/4 AA, when to slow down?

[psuasskicker]

There is a chance he is protecting his KK or QQ from MP3. He probably knows he's not gonna get rid of you but he might try to dump MP3

This is actually why I think it's probably better to call the turn raise and lead the river. Say he's on QQ or KK and thinks it's about 50/50 he has you beat and feels certain he has MP3 beat. He'll still pay two to see showdown, can dump his hand for a reraise, and protects it against MP3 where he can check behind on the river.

I would be sick to my stomach if I get checked behind on the river, and I don't think the chances villain is on JJ is anywhere near 25%. I definitely want one more bet in here, and I don't care all that much if I wind up getting raised on the river since I know guys that'll raise that river with KK.

I think you're missing a lot of value not getting one more bet in there.

- C -

[swong4444]

I think you played this hand well. Preflop and flop are standard, and I would call down from the turn as you did.

Villain's range is JJ-AA. There are 6 combos of JJ, 12 of QQ/KK each, and 1 of AA. I don't like a turn 3bet, because you are losing 2 more bets 6/13 of the time (assuming he caps the turn), gaining 1 bet 6/13 of the time (assuming he calls), and splitting the other 1/13 of the time. I'm ignoring the river for now, but let's just say you both put in a bet there.

Further, from "thinking" villain's perspective, would he raise the turn with QQ? I doubt it, because he is not beating any of the hands you represent (TT-AA). Would villain raise the turn with KK? Maybe, but still not too likely, because he is only beating the 12 QQ combos and splitting with the other KK combo that you could have and losing to the 6 TT, 6 JJ, and 12 AA combos. Thus, I would discount QQ (a lot)and KK (some) as his likely holdings. You can also slightly discount JJ if you think he wouldn't cap preflop with that, but I don't think this is likely.

So, you are probably behind or tied with villain's likely holdings (JJ/AA), and calling down from the turn is fine. Nice hand.

[Fat Nicky]

For those that like the 3-bet the turn, are we calling a cap and then another bet at the river?

Before answering, think about this:
If we 3-bet, and he caps, what hands does he cap the turn with that we beat?

Also keep in mind that although we only have 60 hands on this player, we know he is not a maniac.

IMO, if we get capped, we are forced to call the turn because we're getting just about the correct odds to call to catch a set. Then we're in a position to face a bet on the river getting 20-1, i guess we're not folding in this huge pot, right?

Based on all this, I like just calling the turn raise.

[swong4444]

[ QUOTE ]

If we 3-bet, and he caps, what hands does he cap the turn with that we beat?
...
Based on all this, I like just calling the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, villain is only capping with hands we are drawing to 2 outs, and there's no way we're folding.

[Vermin]

He showed me KK and I made a note on him.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can throw in one more raise... I can see myself playing the same way if I was villian with QQ or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats spew against a TAG.

[swong4444]

[ QUOTE ]
He showed me KK and I made a note on him.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ooops - I guess villain does raise the turn with KK. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Still, I think you played it well.

[psuasskicker]

If we 3-bet, and he caps, what hands does he cap the turn with that we beat?

Seriously? I've lost count of how many people I've seen cap every street with KK on an undercard board. Once it's HU, if he thinks you're capable of making a fold, he could be just trying to run you off your hand.

That doesn't mean I feel great about it, and certainly not against a 10/7. But based on how big this pot is, no chance I'm folding. I've capped turns like that with AA before, and I'm very TAG.

- C -

[crablegs33]

yeah, note needed... these reads are exactly the type necessary to make a more aggressive play on the turn... could be very lucrative should this match up be played out again

[Niediam]

Your reasonsing being?