0-30

plus_man · #1 02-07-2006, 04:20 AM

I have an account at bet365. For those who havent bet with them, they allow you to sell between 6-7 points for basketball on a single game spread(college and pro). So I had the brilliant idea that I was going to do this for every pro and college game where the spread was in the range of +5-+7 for the upsets. Why? I figured these teams would be able to win at a somewhat decent rate. And I thought that if they play well enough to win then they should usually win by at least a few points(sell 7 points on a +5 upset). At +200 I thought this would work out well for me. I put this to the test with money(albeit very small amounts) I ended up going 0-30 to start. This is not a joke. PM me and Ill give you access to the account. I have no money there and i won't be using them anymore. See for yourself. 0-30 to start. Wow. I must be cursed. There have been so many things like this that have happened to me over the past 2.5 years of sports betting that its unreal. One reason I'm posting this is to see if going the other way(selling the points for the favorite) would be profitable. And for those who say that buying/selling points can only be disadvantageous, well then maybe this could be a thread where our worst losing streaks can be posted. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

BobJoeJim · #2 02-07-2006, 05:39 AM

Well, I just ran the numbers on the sportsbookpal line converter (meaning this is NBA only) and found 3614 games with spreads of 5-7. Selling 7 points on these games looks to have a winrate of about 28-29%, and push 2%. The fair moneyline would be somewhere around +240. So if you were only getting +200 then your EV probably wasn't very good...

But the odds of going 0-30 were about 0.002%, since you should only lose 70% of the time. Sweet streak! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

plus_man · #3 02-07-2006, 05:56 AM

Damn, I just got back from Science, Math, and Philosophy. But finally some numbers that matter. lol. I'm glad you put this in its god awful perspective. Sincerely, I respect the way you analyze things. I'm going to have to check that sportsbookpal converter out. Honestly, I'm not bs-ing. 0-30. 1 out of 500 chance of that happening. hmmm. Where to go from here.

DeucesUp · #4 02-07-2006, 06:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1 out of 500 chance of that happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's saying 0.002% not 0.002 decimal. That's a 1 in 50,000 shot

plus_man · #5 02-07-2006, 07:01 AM

Well if thats the case, do you want to see for yourself. It could be a sort of a "religious experience".

BobJoeJim · #6 02-07-2006, 07:47 AM

Technically, it's only a 1/44,366 chance, I rounded the percentage off [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'll lay you 40,000:1 that you can't run it to 0-60 though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

As for "religious experiences," well, I think I'll wait until someone has a 30-0 to show me, I'd be much quicker to worship that!

PropPlayer · #7 02-07-2006, 07:33 PM

Maybe you should try a 12 team parlay, Your over due for 12-0 streak [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

plus_man · #8 02-07-2006, 08:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll lay you 40,000:1 that you can't run it to 0-60 though

[/ QUOTE ]

I may just take you up on that. ha ha. First I have to put money in the account. I wont lose unless i have something risked. As far as a 12 teamer, well ill post 12 picks. Fade me and send me a percentage. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]