Who's with me?

[27offsooot]

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Very nice post guruman.

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Except for his inability to count. But we can forgive him [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[Guruman]

yeah, i don't count so goot. thats why I don't play live. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Disconnected]

I'm a little surprised by the number of folks who said call the turn. We now have multiple people waking up in a multiway pot, including a passive, not extremely loose player who cold-called the prior street. The chance that he's coming to life with a 5x hand is not a huge possibility. Although we may not be drawing dead, our flush outs should be pretty steeply discounted, IMO. I would probably call 2 here anyway closing the action, since we should have enough in implied odds even discounting the flush outs. But the fact that we're not closing the action pretty easily seals the deal for me towards a fold.

Regarding the flop bet, I think it's fine. Yeah, the worst possible guy popped it, but a lot of times, you'll get a peel or two and no one popping it. I don't think that you need to take it down then and there for the bet to be correct, and in fact, you have some more FE on the turn since you did lead into a 4 way flop, if you got a single caller.

So, all in all, to answer the title of the OP, I'm with you on this one [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[Mossberg]

Yeah I think folding the turn is the only way to go here. I would typically donk the flop as well, but Guruman has brought up an interesting point.. However, I doubt it makes much of a difference whether you C/C or B/C there.

[27offsooot]

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I'm a little surprised by the number of folks who said call the turn.

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Ok, so if u're going to criticize others (like I did), at least make better sense. I'm gonna be the logic police today.

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We now have multiple people waking up in a multiway pot, including a passive, not extremely loose player who cold-called the prior street.

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I don't think u can really say that BB is "waking up" when he raised the flop and is, for all intents and purposes, mentally disabled.

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The chance that he's coming to life with a 5x hand is not a huge possibility.

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Why not?

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Although we may not be drawing dead, our flush outs should be pretty steeply discounted, IMO.

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By how much? 10%/ 20%/ 50%? What?, do the math and figure out what a good threshold number would be for making calling profitable/ not profitable. No peeking at my math.

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I would probably call 2 here anyway closing the action, since we should have enough in implied odds even discounting the flush outs.

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How can you EVER call two cold, closing the action. Maybe live, but I digress.

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But the fact that we're not closing the action pretty easily seals the deal for me towards a fold.

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I agree.

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Regarding the flop bet, I think it's fine. Yeah, the worst possible guy popped it, but a lot of times, you'll get a peel or two and no one popping it.


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Why is it so bad that a maniac raised it? It's what maniacs do, if it were somebody else, I would be less happy. At least with him, ur pair outs are more than likely good and you're guaranteed more action if u hit. With this crew, it doesn't sound like too many hands went w/o SD.

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I don't think that you need to take it down then and there for the bet to be correct, and in fact, you have some more FE on the turn since you did lead into a 4 way flop, if you got a single caller.

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Against this crew, I don't think he has all that much FE. More importantly, ur not considering the reverse, what happens when he bets into one caller on the turn and gets raised. Betting the flop and generating more FE, does not necessarily mean that this will make the turn +EV (or really the flop/ turn have a greater EV than playing passively), but this is difficult to really calculate.


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[Heisenb3rg]

c/c flop. You have no fold equity, and only the perfect conditions have to arise for a bet to be for value. It's a pretty tiny mistake to bet though.

as played,
c/f turn. I think calling here is a big mistake.

The board is paired, the action isn't closed, you're draw isnt even to the nut flush, and MP's line/style indicate a monster. You're immediate odds 4:1 don't even jutsify a call. I'm amazed at all the people advocating a call here.

[Disconnected]

Some good points. I'm afraid of trying to do all the quotes within quotes, so I'll try a different format.

Me: "I'm a little surprised by the number of folks who said call the turn.
Response: "Ok, so if u're going to criticize others (like I did), at least make better sense."
Well, I didn't really mean it as criticism, I was honestly surprised. I don't think that I have all the answers, and especially lately haven't been playing much at all. The folks I work with would probably tell you that it's pretty clear when I'm actually criticizing [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img], and I'm honestly not here. But as to making better sense, the folks at work would also tell you I could stand to do that a lot more, too.

Me: "We now have multiple people waking up in a multiway pot, including a passive, not extremely loose player who cold-called the prior street."
Response: "I don't think u can really say that BB is "waking up" when he raised the flop and is, for all intents and purposes, mentally disabled. "
Good point about BB, and we should be less worried about him (but we still can't discount him completely, IMO).

Me: "The chance that he's coming to life with a 5x hand is not a huge possibility. "
Response: "Why not?"
First, I was talking about MP, not sure if that was clear. With a VPIP of 36, while he could still open from MP with a 5 in his hand, it's more likely to not be a 5 (although it could still be a suited connector or even a 55 hand, of course). My point was that I'm more afraid of a 5 from the super-loose player than someone with a 36 VPIP. And of course if all he has is a 5, the flush outs are good. If he made a set on the flop or two pair with a 65 suited connector, we're in more trouble. This is opposed to say a jack pairing instead of a 5, in which case trips is more likely (but the flush outs are cleaner).

Me: "I would probably call 2 here anyway closing the action, since we should have enough in implied odds even discounting the flush outs."
Response: "How can you EVER call two cold, closing the action. Maybe live, but I digress."
Uh, yeah. Maybe that's why my win rate isn't as high as I'd like [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img].

Me: "Regarding the flop bet, I think it's fine. Yeah, the worst possible guy popped it, but a lot of times, you'll get a peel or two and no one popping it."
Response: "Why is it so bad that a maniac raised it? It's what maniacs do, if it were somebody else, I would be less happy. At least with him, ur pair outs are more than likely good and you're guaranteed more action if u hit. With this crew, it doesn't sound like too many hands went w/o SD."
I meant that it's bad from the fact that the whole rest of the field is faced with calling 2 bets cold, and we'd prefer them not to be, since we're not going to win this hand UI. And in general situations, I don't think it's bad at all to lead a flop with a flush draw 4 way in an unraised pot. And yeah I agree with you, in this specific hand, BB's raise by itself on the flop is not scaring me much.

Me: "I don't think that you need to take it down then and there for the bet to be correct, and in fact, you have some more FE on the turn since you did lead into a 4 way flop, if you got a single caller."
Response: "Against this crew, I don't think he has all that much FE. More importantly, ur not considering the reverse, what happens when he bets into one caller on the turn and gets raised. Betting the flop and generating more FE, does not necessarily mean that this will make the turn +EV (or really the flop/ turn have a greater EV than playing passively), but this is difficult to really calculate."
Again, I was talking about the general situation of leading into 3 other players in an unraised pot. In this specific hand, I agree that FE is less of a concern and that it's difficult to determine the EV of a more passive flop line. But betting is more fun.

[Scary_Tiger]

Fold bad, call good.

[StellarWind]

I am not betting this flop when I have no chance to win. The last thing I want is someone raising me and confronting other players with two bets.

I fold the turn because the odds just aren't there given the weakness of my flush draw and the serious risk of being reraised or even capped.

Two very unpleasant possible hands for MP aside from the obvious monsters:

1. Top pair + flush draw.

2. Nut flush draw - Villain is trying to promote his hand by isolating the bluffer.

Someone suggested that we must call if there is any chance that MP has 99. Not necessarily true because our pair outs are only good if we can get a free showdown. We do not have adequate odds to call the river with a pair of tens.