bullets vs cts, river action?

[MDMA]

How about "Smart Nit"?

[fslexcduck]

lucky,

first i disagree that this is not a flush draw usually. i think it's a smartly played combo draw almost all the time, specifically a pair plus draw. jkkk is clearly strong so cts has no reaso nto raise but he gets odds to call. so check/fold is best.

even if you think he has a K a lot of the time, he will usually check that behind on the river when you check. so even if it's K 70% flush 30% if he only bluffs the K like 10% of the time (probably accurate if he really value called K on turn, no reason he doesnt think it's good now), it's still a clear check/fold situation. (30% v 7% will be all in, you're not getting 4 to 1, etc)

just because you feel you're usually winning in a spot (which i irrelevantly to my point disagree with) is NOT a reason not to fold.

[T-God]

I c/c anything on the river. I don't think cts calls the turn with most flush draws (except when he freakishly hits 2 pair to go with it)

[luckychewy]

good post duck, maybe im wrong. i just think if he called the turn with a K and we push the river, he has to know we know hearts are a big part of his range and since we were representing basically exactly what we have on the flop/turn our river push wouldn't look like it at all so i think we can get a calldown from a king. obviously for the reasons you stated if your numbers are correct then c/f is ideal. my assumptions are all highly dependent on if we think he calls a king on the turn, or if we think he thinks we will 3-barrel or not, etc., though.

[Requin]

Lucky, a river push doesn't look like AA you're right. It looks like a flush... I don't think cts calls with kings to a river shove.

[ahnuld]

a river shove COULD get called by crap because it looks like air or a shove, so bluffcatchers may call. But I prob. check/fold river.

[Requin]

There's not THAT much air jkkkk can have by the river, about 1/2 of his turn air got there.

[TakenItEasy]

Just a MTTer here so forgive my ignorance but I haven't seen anyone suggesting overbetting the turn, say 150. With so many paired draws or combo draws hitting on the turn, do you really loose enough equity from KQ KT or TT vs reducing implied odds and FE.

[cts]

People are saying I would bet the turn if checked to? [censored] no, I'd insta check behind.

[ahnuld]

if hero has been playing weak why wouldnt you take it away from him now?