3/6 AA vs Jam

[BalugaWhale]

Jam's game is extremely solid. I have him at like 23/20 or something, I consider him one of the toughest midstakes players in the game. Button is a donk, if he outflopped me then so be it. He has a really wide range here and is probably destroyed.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $767.80
Hero: $660
CO: $756.70
Button: $765.60
SB: $551.20
BB: $727.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $21</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $66</font>, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($207, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $165</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $701.8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero?</font>

Obv he has a draw, a set, or a really strong overpair. Whats the plan?

[luckychewy]

at first i was like wtf calllll, but pot is protected and he should know he has like absolutly no fe, i think i can find a fold here. esp since he will be calling any pp closing the action pf.

EDIT: i also assume he 4-bets qq/kk pf because of the donk, and i think he folds jj to our flop bet.

[MDMA]

Uh, instacall?

[cts]

Just put him on KK and get it over with, call.

[KingGordy]

I'd probably call. I expect to be quite a bit behind his range, but we're getting like 3:1 here right? I think he shows up with a combo draw or KK enough of the time to make this a call.

[GoodCallYouWin]

rofl it went raise re-raise preflop, the flop is 7 high and you have aces. SNAP CALL.

[Entity]

If his range is a draw, a set, or an overpair, it seems like a ridiculously easy call. You've got ~65% equity vs a draw, 80% vs an overpair (most likely hand), and 8% vs a set with a ton of dead money in the pot. I can't see why you'd ever seriously consider folding here if you think his range is that wide. It's not like you're deep (110BB) or that the c/r is giving you bad odds (looks like you're getting better than 2:1 here).

PS - I'm super drunk right now and watching the Seahawks play horrible football but still somehow have the lead, so if my math or estimates are wrong, whatever. But if your handrange is even close to right (even weighted) it's still a call.

Rob

[ahnuld]

the bb makes it less likely he is bluffing, but he still does this with flush draws and big PP's so we kinda have to call.

[BalugaWhale]

I guess the source of my confusion was whether or not Jam would make this move with a draw with the donk in
i.e. is he using the donk for dead money to pad his drawing odds, or did he c/r to squeeze as much money out of the donk and try to rope us both into the pot?

btw, just cause his range is a strong overpair, a set, or a draw doesnt mean there is equal probability of each of those. My concern is how likely he (or other TAG players) are to have each of these holdings in this situation.

[cts]

Also something to think about, if you both know the guy in the middle is retarded, he could be "bluffing" with a hand that is better than the donk's but worse than yours.