Exploring how marginal chip value changes with stack size

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THE WALLS ARE CLOSING IN! AAAAAAAAAARGGH!!!

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Hey, I understood that part.

Having seen the discussion of this issue, which is undoubtedly fascinating in the abstract, and having seen the comparison of some results of the diffusion model and the ICM, I have some questions. In what sense can one model or the other be said to be a "better" representation of a poker game? Are we able to draw any conclusions as to what model most closely mimics the results of play between players of equal skill, in a no-limit hold'em tournament with an escalating blind structure?

There are several obvious respects in which "coin-flip" models fail to correspond to how a poker tournament is decided:

(1) They assume no skill differential.

(2) They disregard the variety of ways in which chips can be won or lost--e.g., bets of various sizes, two-way pots, and multi-way pots.

(3) They disregard the blind structure.

Pikachu proposed some other interesting models here. It strikes me that each of these (with the exception of the decay model, which seems completely unrealistic) has something to teach us. It strikes me that there are many random decision models that can give us insights, but that none of them corresponds very closely to how a poker tournament is actually decided.

So what model is "best," and why?