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#362
11-18-2005, 07:04 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Please close this thread AZK. I'll let other's elaborate. [/ QUOTE ] Please don't. A number of us are still waiting for some elaboration. [/ QUOTE ] El Diablo, No offense, but we were all waiting for responses and elaboration from MM. It clearly isn't going to happen and this thread has gotten out of control. Do you not agree? Perhaps try PMing MM or Ed or someone to help you get answers that you deserve. I also understand you are probably frustrated from putting all this math and reason into your posts and getting no replies, but I don't think you are going to get one. 
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#363
11-18-2005, 08:23 AM
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Re: Analysis
Please do not lock this thread until Mason responds.
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#365
11-18-2005, 10:51 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
I have elaborated in detail. I am simply waiting for an explanation from Mason, David, or Ed as to why Mason is mocking his opponents because when given the choice to make either $40 or $15, they think it is better to make $40. [/ QUOTE ] El d, don't you this this is poor way to evaluate the value of two hands in no limit? I haven't read all 300 posts of calcuations, ive read a handful of them, but its such a complex game with so many streets and factors that this seems like a very imperfect way to come to a conclusion on which hand is better.
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#366
11-18-2005, 10:51 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
There cannot ever be a satisfactory response from masons side, as his original posts statement is just plain wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Sure there can. "I was wrong, sorry. And I should have admitted that a long time ago." There's nothing wrong with making a mistake. But be man enough to admit it.
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#367
11-18-2005, 11:28 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have elaborated in detail. I am simply waiting for an explanation from Mason, David, or Ed as to why Mason is mocking his opponents because when given the choice to make either $40 or $15, they think it is better to make $40. [/ QUOTE ] El d, don't you this this is poor way to evaluate the value of two hands in no limit? I haven't read all 300 posts of calcuations, ive read a handful of them, but its such a complex game with so many streets and factors that this seems like a very imperfect way to come to a conclusion on which hand is better. [/ QUOTE ] Uhm, is there a better metric to compare hand value than their expected value?? Please elaborate. Unless you are referring to the analysis of how the numbers $40 and $15 came up. Offcourse this is imperfect, but it is more convincing than intuitive hand waving and heuristics. Edited for spelling.
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#368
11-18-2005, 12:00 PM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
I have elaborated in detail. I am simply waiting for an explanation from Mason, David, or Ed as to why Mason is mocking his opponents because when given the choice to make either $40 or $15, they think it is better to make $40. [/ QUOTE ] I WAS WRONG!! BUT I AM STILL RIGHT! As Diablo properly pointed out to me in a PM the Jack could hit the turn or river. The chance that Ace or Q hits the flop with no J and J hits turn or river tips the balance 40 -15 for JJ, as has been stated many times and I was too hard headed to see that MY PROBABILITIES WERE OFF. But there is a critical differance between JJ and AQ on the turn and river when they don't improve. When AQ does not improve, they have nothing! When AQ improves and is ahead of JJ, JJ still has something making extracting future bets a possibility! What can really happen if Ace or Q flops and NO J hits the flop turn or river? What if AQ bets a small amount turn and river, like $100? Will JJ call? If so, AQ is better! $67 to -16. Even $50 turn and river bets make AQ better 41 to 14. Bet sizes are likely to be higher if AQ is ahead. If J checks turn and AQ bets JJ is likely to fold. But not 100% of the time like AQ! Not with players I have seen. And even a small amount of money that AQ could squeeze out of JJ on the turn and river would tip the balance. I set the percentages and win / loss possibilities in a spread sheat and played around with the differant turn and river betting scenarios. You will see that this is what tips the scale in favor of AQ. The fact that that JJ will likely call turn and river bets when behind as opposed to AQ makes AQ the higher EV in this example. When AQ is ahead on the flop and J hits the turn or river, it is still easy for AQ to shut down...why? Because with the $150 reraise if the Q flops AQ still fears AA, KK or QQ and if the Ace flops AQ still fears AK. Simply put even though JJ is a better hand, because of pot odds and the ease of getting away from the hand when behind, as opposed to JJ, AQ is preferable hand.
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#369
11-18-2005, 12:07 PM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate. MM [/ QUOTE ] Whoa, Mason. Do you really disagree with my calculations here? You really don't see how, given your assumptions, JJ is worth $40 and AQs is worth $15? [/ QUOTE ] Bump!
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#370
11-18-2005, 12:15 PM
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Re: Analysis
I know you're trying hard and I commend you for that. But your posts are showing very fundamental misconceptions about NL. And you are bumping this huge thread with every attempt. Please stop. Maybe El Diablo (who seems to have infinite patience these days) or someone else can help you work through this away from this thread, but we really don't all need to read these posts of yours. Thanks.
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