Official November thread: General Discussion, Goals, Winrates, etc

[Melchiades]

Die cts!

[tcorbin16]

cts was this all on ftp?

[cts]

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cts was this all on ftp?

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Probably like 1/2 ftp 1/2 stars.

[Fight Club]

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$1/hand is probably a good goal for most MSNL ballas.

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$1/hand is more or less unattainable for all but the elite MSNL players. how many people really make 8.33 ptbb at 3/6 or 5 ptbb at 5/10? i think most people have a tendency to look at their best month or best 30k hand stretch or whatever and assume that's their winrate. looking at that big db opened my eyes to this. so many of the 3/6 and 5/10 regulars on party winning 20 cents a hand taking pretty big variance when they could be winning that much with no variance at 200NL. bbv has glorified the idea of moving up as fast as possible, or whenever you have x buyins, rather than when you're ready. i think we're going to see a lot of peoples' egos cause them to get buried with these new, tougher games when they can't admit to themselves that they're marginal winners, and wind up getting swallowed by the inevitable 40 buyin downswings that we're going to start seeing, even at midstakes. just like all those 1000+ BB downsiwngs we've been seeing from limit players

this is obviously not directed at you. i've always admired your willingness to move up and down depending on how you're playign and running. it's just the idea that these types of winrates are commonplace. it's none of my business what other peoples' goals are, but i find it's a lot easier to cope with losing and running bad when i'm actually honest with myself about how i'm playing and what my actual expectation is

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If you can teach yourself not to tilt, or stop playing when tilted I think even a very average player (like an unimaginative nit - 17/14 type) can make 5ptbb/100 at 5/10 in the long run. I'm not saying this is by any means easy, but it is a big part of poker that doesn't get much attention. However if the games get worse these types will have to adapt or there winrate will start to get eaten up by the very best regs.

[Josh.]

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$1/hand is probably a good goal for most MSNL ballas.

[/ QUOTE ]



$1/hand is more or less unattainable for all but the elite MSNL players. how many people really make 8.33 ptbb at 3/6 or 5 ptbb at 5/10? i think most people have a tendency to look at their best month or best 30k hand stretch or whatever and assume that's their winrate. looking at that big db opened my eyes to this. so many of the 3/6 and 5/10 regulars on party winning 20 cents a hand taking pretty big variance when they could be winning that much with no variance at 200NL. bbv has glorified the idea of moving up as fast as possible, or whenever you have x buyins, rather than when you're ready. i think we're going to see a lot of peoples' egos cause them to get buried with these new, tougher games when they can't admit to themselves that they're marginal winners, and wind up getting swallowed by the inevitable 40 buyin downswings that we're going to start seeing, even at midstakes. just like all those 1000+ BB downsiwngs we've been seeing from limit players

this is obviously not directed at you. i've always admired your willingness to move up and down depending on how you're playign and running. it's just the idea that these types of winrates are commonplace. it's none of my business what other peoples' goals are, but i find it's a lot easier to cope with losing and running bad when i'm actually honest with myself about how i'm playing and what my actual expectation is

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can teach yourself not to tilt, or stop playing when tilted I think even a very average player (like an unimaginative nit - 17/14 type) can make 5ptbb/100 at 5/10 in the long run. I'm not saying this is by any means easy, but it is a big part of poker that doesn't get much attention. However if the games get worse these types will have to adapt or there winrate will start to get eaten up by the very best regs.

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then why have so few people actually accomplished this? and the ones who have are people like lolo, EM2, booosted. i'm talking longrun. not 50k hands running at 5 because even a marginal winner could pull that off with good cards. and if you're saying tilt control is the #1 skill then i think that's ridiculous

[Requin]

Totally agree with Josh, 1$ a hand is a sick winrate that not everyone can achieve. 5PTBB/100 at 5/10nl, today, does require alot more than just a nitty basic game.

[viciouspenguin]

lol, yea............ 5ptbb/100 with lots of tables = SO EASY!!!! EVEN AVG PEOPLE can do it

[viciouspenguin]

may i present... datamined stats for a 2 month period at 5/10 LAST YEAR (11/05-1/06, when the games were significantly easier)

Player Game BB100 %V$IP %PFR %WTSD %W$SD
RebuyFish NL $1000-6 8.07 29.01 21.68 26.79 54.29
TheLightBulb NL $1000-6 7.31 22.06 15.36 17.64 51.82
This_is_4_DV NL $1000-6 6.99 40.00 26.86 22.29 46.86
ingenskrub NL $1000-6 6.56 38.54 18.30 20.38 51.26
Dardumbyu NL $1000-6 5.92 29.23 20.24 24.44 45.43
digbick30 NL $1000-6 5.49 22.98 13.88 25.72 49.28
Liquid_Farts NL $1000-6 5.28 26.28 11.80 19.74 53.40
calleverythn NL $1000-6 5.27 29.96 13.96 17.41 52.84
CeroAngelo NL $1000-6 5.22 22.29 16.07 18.34 48.51
mackyp NL $1000-6 5.00 24.30 18.31 20.45 41.76
loloTRICKEDu NL $1000-6 4.93 26.98 17.93 23.74 49.96

i think this is minimum 40k hands. obviously out of this bunch a few are capable of maintaing 5ptbb/100+ (lolo, ingenskrub, rebuyfish, etc.) through infinity, but this is the # of people who maintained 5ptbb/100 during a 2 month span when the games were much much easier........

[yvesaint]

ship it!! i took a break from downswinging at cash games so im playing all donkaments tonite

won a 50+5 90 man for $1350!! im still in 25k guaranteed and im playing the stuper

its nothing for a 5/10 or 10/20 player but it feels good

[viciouspenguin]

for those curious, here are the people who maintained 5ptbb/100+ at 10/20 during this same time period

Player Game BB100 %V$IP %PFR %WTSD %W$SD
BLdSWtTRs NL $2000 9.54 38.35 31.97 28.22 45.83
reefaaddict NL $2000 6.29 26.68 12.77 20.56 51.90
captZEEbo NL $2000 5.77 22.67 17.31 24.33 51.53
ggbman NL $2000 5.34 25.87 8.87 22.34 48.44