Player Discussion

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Your comments about the better player taking the pot away are addressed in my analysis.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]
Only very superficially and not to the satisfaction of any posters with whom I am familiar. I believe I speak for the majority of posters when I say that making that preflop call with AQ against a good player is no +EV and your analysis was not sufficiently rigorous to demonstrate to us that it is.

[Mason Malmuth]

[ QUOTE ]
making that preflop call with AQ against a good player is no +EV and your analysis was not sufficiently rigorous to demonstrate to us that it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely.

Best wishes,
mason

[Matt Flynn]

Mason,

Please explain your original clain that E[AQs] > E[JJ].

Matt

[Larry David]

[ QUOTE ]
Mason,

Please explain your original clain that E[AQs] > E[JJ].

Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just going to ask the same thing. You claimed to make a statement and said other players in the game were bad because they believed the opposite. What is your position and how are you backing it?

[t_petrosian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hi Mark:


Even worse, it is much more common that AQ will get stacked by JJ than the reverse.

As AQs starts facing better and better players holding the Jacks, the chances of getting stacked increase as well as the chances of getting blown off the better hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY....... THIS IS THE KEY. AQ will get stacked whereas JJ won't

[t_petrosian]

[ QUOTE ]
The real reason AQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is better than JJ is because the former has an Ace of spades which just happens to be Norman Chad's favorite card.

Seriously, on the flop, the AQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (because it is in early position) has the first opportunity to bet on the flop regardless of what the flop is. Thus, if I was playing this hand I would commit to betting an amount on the flop which is 2/3 of the pot even before I see the flop.

Now take a look at this action from the perspective of the JJ guy.

Flop 1: two or more overcards flop (JJ guy scared)
Flop 2: three small cards flop (JJ confused but could make a highly risky raise to find out where he's at)
Flop 3: there's a small pair on the flop (JJ confused but could make an info raise as well)

In other words, AQ gets to play with less fear and confusion. In this hand AQ is better than JJ because of position. Early position to be exact.

[/ QUOTE ]

HUH?

First, if this is your take, it doesn't matter what you're holding. if you have Q2o, you can play it the same way. Truly a bizarre post

[slong]

Hi Mason

Can you please explain it yourself?

The only problem I can find in my equation is the typo that I pointed out in my reply to my post and that didnt influence the answer:

[ QUOTE ]

I used the wrong second term in the equation but the answer is correct, should be:
EV = 0.67*(315) + 0.26*(-225) + 0.07*(540) = $190.35


[/ QUOTE ]

I have checked it a couple of times and EV(JJ) > EV(AQ) according to your model, so please explain. That was the question as far as I understood, would you prefer having the JJ or the AQ from the flop onwards with chips behind.

Let me run through this again:

We have three events:
A) No A or Q flops (67%)
- JJ: +315 and AQ: +0
B) A or Q flops and no J on flop, turn or river (26%)
- JJ: -225, AQ: +540
C) A or Q flops and J on flop, turn or river (7%)
- JJ: +540, AQ: -225

So:

EV(JJ) = 0.67*(315) + 0.26*(-225) + 0.07*(540) = $190.35

EV(AQ) = 0.67*(0) + 0.26*(540) + 0.07*(-225) = $124.65

Where is the mistake? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[shobute]

Post deleted by shobute

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Mason,

Please explain your original clain that E[AQs] > E[JJ].

Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just going to ask the same thing. You claimed to make a statement and said other players in the game were bad because they believed the opposite. What is your position and how are you backing it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he said the players were bad because they didn't understand the discussion, not because of their opinion on it.

[slong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We have three events:
A) No A or Q flops (67%)
- JJ: +315 and AQ: +0
B) A or Q flops and no J on turn or river (26%)
- JJ: -225, AQ: +540
C) A or Q flops and J on turn or river (7%)
- JJ: +540, AQ: -225


[/ QUOTE ]

D) A or Q plus a J flops.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is covered by C, it actually includes all the times a J appears not just on the turn and the river according to Mason's model. Sorry, I will edit my post if I still can.