Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

[Trae3ab]

You know...

This is just strategy and not actual play. I feel the strategy can be a combination of these styles.

I am a reactive player, and based on a biased TV portrayal of the way Helmuth and Ferguson play they are both pretty tight and choosey aggressors.

I would definately choose to be aggressive with semi-bluffs.

Also, value bets are even more crucial if you are heads up with a tight player.

Leaving money on the table by under/over value betting is a big mistake.


Value betting is a critical to winning heads up(in my limited experience).


Also, letting up is just sloppy play... Just because you are up in matches doesn't mean you've won, obviously.



Spitting in a wishing well,
Trae

[ZeeJustin]

No adjustments.

You want to do whatever you can to maximize your % chance of winning any given HU match.

Once you accept that, it is clear that the current "score" of the match, or number of games left to be played is irrelevent.

[Dangeresque]

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I'd make no adjustment to my play.

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Now that you want explanations. I'd say that I'd make no adjustments, because by playing my optimal game each match, I'd improve my chances of winning each match in isolation. If I were to change to a less optimal strategy, then I would reduce the probability of a win in any given match, thus exponentially increasing my opponents opportunity to win all 5 matches. Any mistake you make here will be magnified. The matches begin to more accurately reflect skill over luck and as David has oft noted we are at war with luck.

[Shandrax]

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I'd say that I'd make no adjustments, because by playing my optimal game each match, I'd improve my chances of winning each match in isolation.

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This is no limit, so please define what "optimal" means for you. The only optimal no limit play I see is to move all-in with the correct SC numbers, as I have mentioned before. Once you both see the flop, the term "optimal" doesn't fit anymore.

Imagine you got A-To and the flop comes A-J-9 rainbow. Your opponent moves all-in and your stacks are about even. What now? Way ahead or way behind. Sure, you can try to figure out Bayes combinations here, but maybe he just moved in because today is Friday.

[SuperUberBob]

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I'd make no adjustment to my play.

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[antistuff]

5 opportunities to win once. go all in everyhand preflop.

[CityFan]

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5 opportunities to win once. go all in everyhand preflop.

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Surely this is the easiest way to lose?

Chances of winning a showdown against a random hand for:

AA
KK
QQ
JJ

please?

[Grizwold]

AA- 85%
KK- 82%
QQ- 79%
JJ- 77%

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 85.2037 % 84.93% 00.27% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 14.7963 % 14.52% 00.27% { random }

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equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 82.3957 % 82.12% 00.28% { KcKd }
Hand 2: 17.6043 % 17.33% 00.28% { random }

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equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 79.9252 % 79.63% 00.29% { QcQd }
Hand 2: 20.0748 % 19.78% 00.29% { random }

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equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 77.4695 % 77.15% 00.32% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 22.5305 % 22.21% 00.32% { random }

[CityFan]

Thanks. Villain would have to wait on average 55 hands for one of these holdings. If he then called an all-in from antistuff, he would be 80% to win the hand.

Let's be generous and say antistuff has a 30% of winning a heads up encounter if villain adopts this strategy. (My God this is so unscientific)

antistuff has an 80% chance of winning one of the five games. Not bad, but I think he can do better...

[antistuff]

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Thanks. Villain would have to wait on average 55 hands for one of these holdings. If he then called an all-in from antistuff, he would be 80% to win the hand.

Let's be generous and say antistuff has a 30% of winning a heads up encounter if villain adopts this strategy. (My God this is so unscientific)

antistuff has an 80% chance of winning one of the five games. Not bad, but I think he can do better...

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your analysis doesnt take the blinds into account at all.

also i think once he realizes what your doing he is going to call with a lot more than jj+.