Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.

[Fantam]

Posting blind.

I dont remember the example from SSHE that you are referring to, but you may enlighten me.

Nice opening description, particularly of the LAG.

Normally, I would fold 99 to the solid player's UTG pf raise, but a call seems reasonable with the LAG also in the hand.

Your explanation for your flop 3-bet makes sense to me, but I agree that it looks as though you are in trouble when UTG caps.

I agree that UTG may have c-bet the flop with say AK, particularly if one of them was a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], however the flop cap suggests that she has a high overpair.

After the LAG calls the flop cap, the pot is 19.5 sb, and is big enough for you to call in the hope of catching a 3rd 9.

You pick up a draw to a one card flush on the turn, but it is only to the 5th nuts.

Thats where I think that you made a mistake. I dont think that your turn bet was likely to fold UTG if she had a high overpair or A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the LAG was probably also going nowhere.

So, I would have gratefully taken your free card on the turn, as opposed to attempt to represent the made flush with a bluff.

UTG looks as though she is still worried about a possibly made flush when she checks the river. However, despite the huge pot, I very much doubt whether your hand is best and I would not have called the river bet.

If you had checked behind on the turn and UTG had still checked the river, then I would have felt more inclined to call the LAG's river bet.

[Jago]

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I agree with the pf call. A raise from a tight 15/9 player is something you have to respect. Give him a range like 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo and let UTG+1 call 30% of his hands and your equity is like ~33%. I call and hope for the set or a good flop.

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Using preflop equity to justify a call, then saying "call and hope for the set or a good flop" is terrible reasoning.

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Aaron,

You're definitely right about this, but I don't agree that we should be folding preflop. There's enough money in the pot to justify calling on the basis of non-high-card flops and flops that make us a set alone. Give me another cold-caller and I'd call with 44.

To those who 3-bet preflop,

What's your reasoning?

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In order of importance, (imo)
1. become the aggressor
2. buy button/get rid of limpers (maybe this should be 1)
3. to further define UTG's hand, aka if she caps we can pretty much narrow her hand down to AA, KK, AKs

[YesMehFriend]

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I agree with the pf call. A raise from a tight 15/9 player is something you have to respect. Give him a range like 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo and let UTG+1 call 30% of his hands and your equity is like ~33%. I call and hope for the set or a good flop.

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Using preflop equity to justify a call, then saying "call and hope for the set or a good flop" is terrible reasoning.

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I mentioned the equity to show that reraising a tight raiser won't do us any good. Folding >> rasing imo against this 15/9 guy.

But I don't think we have to fold. A flop that gives us an overpair is very good with this hand and we should win it very often. More importantly we can get away from the hand easily in case the flop comes down pretty bad (most ace-flops etc.).
But when we hit a set we should get good action with ~3 villains (one very loose guy and one pf-raiser). When the pf-raiser hits a hand or has a high pp you might get huge action.
It's close to a fold but I still think calling is right.

[Fantam]

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Pf I think we should re-raise. UTG+1 probably puts some dead money in the pot, so that compensates for the time UTG has us crushed (I would fold HU against UTG). But we want to eliminate players behind us.



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I would agree with wanting to eliminate players with a pf 3-bet if you thought it was likely that you had the best starting hand. In that case, you would want to improve its chances of holding up.

However, there is a reasonably good chance that UTG has a higher pocket pair than you, and you would not be much of a favourite over UTG if she had 2 overcards to your pair.

In addition, it would become expensive to call another bet if UTG then capped your pf 3-bet, with presumably a higher pair than yours.

So overall, I think that calling the pf raise with the loose player padding the pot seems to offer the best value for your hand.

[Sushiglutton]

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I would agree with wanting to eliminate players with a pf 3-bet if you thought it was likely that you had the best starting hand. In that case, you would want to improve its chances of holding up.

However, there is a reasonably good chance that UTG has a higher pocket pair than you, and you would not be much of a favourite over UTG if she had 2 overcards to your pair.

In addition, it would become expensive to call another bet if UTG then capped your pf 3-bet, with presumably a higher pair than yours.

So overall, I think that calling the pf raise with the loose player padding the pot seems to offer the best value for your hand.

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I think u have a point. After running a simulation on stove I don't think we have the equity to 3-bet (my estimate of their ranges gives us about 31% equity and like u said we could be capped and then we are in real trouble). Calling makes sense if we think we can get that extra equity on the later streets which is reasonable with UTG+1 in the hand (also we have the blind money). Also, if button, SB and BB came in, that would probably be good for us, increasing our equity/player rate.

[detruncate]

I don't hate pf. I might also fold or 3-bet depending on my feeling after watching Villain for a while.

The flop 3-bet is fine, but once you get capped by Villain you're usually in a world of trouble. It's very unlikely that she raised with less than 88 pf, or capped the flop OOP with two overs (unless she also has a diamond draw) vs a LAG and a guy who's going to be on a PP a lot after the pf coldcall + flop action. It would suggest a level of aggression you probably would have taken the time to talk about. It's possible you're on med suited connectors like QJs/JTs, or even hands like AJs/AQs if you're not very aggro pf and just want to get it HU v UTG+1 (with or without diamonds in all cases), but that's still a strong reaction from UTG with what is often very few outs if she's just on overs sans diamonds.

I just check through the turn. Betting doesn't really protect you from anything since there's a good chance that UTG is on a bigger PP that she's showing down unless another diamond falls and she doesn't have one or all hell breaks loose on the turn/river.

If UTG leads the river I fold UI. If UTG+1 leads and he'll bet with pretty much anything, I consider raising to try to discourage an overcall from UTG... though the chance that she has an overpair is diminished quite a lot after checking 2 streets unless she's particularly weak/tight, so just calling with the hope that she doesn't overcall would probably be ok. If a diamond falls I just call/bet if checked to.

[Aaron W.]

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Aaron,

You're definitely right about this, but I don't agree that we should be folding preflop. There's enough money in the pot to justify calling on the basis of non-high-card flops and flops that make us a set alone. Give me another cold-caller and I'd call with 44.

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Put villain on a hand range. How often does villain hold a pair and how often does he have two high cards? How often does the flop come down as a "non-high-card flop"? How often does villain's high card catch you on the turn? (Presumably, he's not folding on the flop if it's all undercards.) When the flop comes as a "non-high-card flop", are you able to get away from your pair of 9s if villain keeps attacking (say you have a 853 flop or a J76 flop)?

[Bruce D]

I may be getting some books mixed up, but I thought it was SSHE. Perhaps I read on NPAs web site. But the concept is there. And it would have likely won me this pot. I know its being results oriented, but because I hadn't been in the situation much if at all, I wasn't ready and hadn't thought about using this line.

The error on the play was not raising the river.

UTG showed just enough fear of the flush that it was in the back of her mind. When UTG1 comes firing, I should have INSTANTLY known, (don't remember if I did or not) that he did not have the flush. His play did not represent the flush. There was definitely no fear from UTG that she had the flush. There was a chance that she would call the river donk.

The proper play was to raise the river. UTG would now be more likely to fold for 2 cold I am assuming. My play would have been consitent with the flush holding and the play would be a +EV. I may not have won the pot on this hand specifically, but given the players and the board texture and the preflop action, a raise would win this pot enough times to make the raise profitable.

The raise should get her to fold what is likely the winning hand, and I get to either scoop the pot when UTG1 folds, or when my hand holds up heads up against him.

One thing I forgot to metion in the OP, is that his W$SD% was ~40%. That definitely bears on the decision. I don't remember what hers was.

[Shillx]

What is the problem? You feel like you should have raised the river? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Eh I dunno dude. Seems sketch to me.

[Hielko]

I think raising the river is not a very good idea. Given the action it's crystal clear that UTG is holding AA or KK. I usually don't try to bluff people off an overpair, people just call so often with these hands when it should be clear that they are beaten. You not only need to bluff UTG off his hand, you also need to have a better hand than UTG+1. Your hand is certainly not very bad against his range, but when we assume villain plays 80% of the hands preflop the probability that you have the best hand on this board is just 55%. Also note that this is assuming that he is never folding and playing his trash/hopeless hands like this. Even the worst players don't do this, so this probably means that the probability that he has a better hand than you is more than 50%.

Add this to the fact that UTG will call often with his overpair I think this is not the spot to bluff. Also note that UTG could be looking for a C/R on the river when he is holding QQ instead of AA and KK.

Comments on the other streets:

Preflop: I would usually fold 99 versus a raise from a tight player coming from UTG, but calling is ok I think with the fish in the hand.

flop: I agree with the preflop 3-bet to try to get an AK/AQ hand that is c-betting here to fold. When he caps it obvious you are in trouble.

turn: I don't see why you want to bet here. Be happy with your freecard, you don't have the best hand: try to hit your two-outer.

river: I see no reason to call here.