Player Discussion

[flawless_victory]

apparently, mason thinks the hand w/ the imlied odds is AQs as it wont be paying off JJ UI...
im not gonna argure, but the JJ is better. mason prob is not that strong in NL.

[AceHiStation]

Given that the deck is missing an A, Q, J, and another J... there are 48 cards left in the deck. Assuming the JJ doesn't flop a set, there's 10 cards(3 Qs, 4 Ks, 3 As) that will easily scare JJ off his hand. Feeling stupid that I don't know how to do the math to figure out chances of flopping one of 10 outs, but maybe if I BS I can get there...

so 48 cards left for flop card 1, 10/48
flop card 2, 10/47=21%
flop card 3, 10/46

I'll go ahead and use 21% for all 3. 63% chance that JJ will flop an overcard in this situation. This seems really high so correct me if I'm wrong. But if I am right, 63% of the time JJ will most likely have to let go of his hand if faced with resistance.

Another issue that is already covered, it is a lot easier for AQs to tell if he has the best hand than the JJ. Just a couple thoughts,
-Ace



EDIT: Also, I think if this hand were played out with 1000 different flops, 500 with JJ in position, 500 with AQs in position... my money is on AQs coming out on top. Lets say a K flops, JJ bets anyways, takes down the pot. An A or Q flops, JJ bets anyways, gets called or reraised and is forced to slowdown or let go of the hand. AQs either hits or misses, with the exception of QJ or AJ flops. I'll take position first, then AQs all day long.

[chuddo]

[ QUOTE ]
Another issue that is already covered, it is a lot easier for AQs to tell if he has the best hand than the JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
?

vs. AK on A72r flop.
vs KK/AA on Q33 flop.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Doesn't it seem like you're simplifying things a bit too much? First of all, I think JJ is an overpair to the flop around 50% of the time, but that's just off my head so could be wrong. But definitely it is not true that AQ will have an easier time knowing when it is behind. Sure, if the flop is all undercards, it may be easy to know it is behind. But when the flop is AJ2 or AQJ that's not going to be easy to get away from. Particularly if there is a flush draw on the board.

[bkholdem]

In addition to position and who is agressing, wouldn't a lot depend on the individual players skill sets?

[fsuplayer]

if im remembering right, you flop a set or overpair w JJ around 48%.

[t_petrosian]

OOHHH!! So wrong as far as I'm concerned. Maybe this argument holds true in limit, but in NL? no way. No reasonable nl player in his right mind is going to pay off AQs when the hand hits... any A or Q and JJ should shut down to any serious action from the other player. Any non A,Q will shut down the AQ player. So, you would think you're at a standstill, but let's look what happens when each player hits a monster, for implied odds...

AQ = flop AQx. Or XsXsXs. Either way, what moron is playing JJ to pay this off.

JJ = Flop AJ5. DING DING DING. Basically, I think we see that JJ is the easier hand to play, it's slightly better in the cointoss and it's implied odds are MUCH higher than AQs, since there is NO way JJ will pay off AQs except for the rare Js8s2s flop, but even there JJ should be cautious. I just don't see how AQs has nearly the implied odds that JJ does.... then again, I don't write books

[El Diablo]

I'll take the JJ.

[NoahSD]

The AQ has to fold almost 2/3 of flops and the JJ can get away on 90% of the flops where it's beat.

[HEK]

JJ. I'm a fish like the rest of you.