MyTurn's week 8 CFB (10/19-10/21)

[Heidal]

NC State +2
Indiana +31
Wisconsin -6.5
Miami -17.5
Notre Dame -13
South Carolina -3.5
Pittsburgh -6
Tennessee -10.5

GL everyone

[bugstud]

apparently, IL plays well in conference, and bad outta conference?

[mmbt0ne]

MT2R,

You seem to pick a lot of games using Sagarin predictor. Isn't the predictor doing pretty poorly this year?

[Guyon]

If you can get this option at your sportsbook, get on Nicholls State (-3).

I know guys on both teams and I think the line for this game is off because its one of those small conference games.

Northwestern St. has a pitiful QB situation, Nicholls has a revived home crowd and are playing to compete in the conference.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Penn St -17.5 v Illinois good to -19.5
Penn St/Illinois U43 good to 40.5

Going against the correlated play theory with these two picks.

sagarin predictor, dunkel, and my index all say to go with Penn St. Illinois' rush offense is rated top20, but will be dominated by the top15 rush defense of the Nittany Lions. Penn St has crushed the teams that it's better than. Illinois is a very unpredictable/inconsistent team this year. They've taken advantage of really poor defenses, but sucked against the good ones; 0 points @ Rutgers, 7 v Iowa, 21 v Syracuse (2 4th quarter mop-up plays). Penn St's soemwhat victimized secondary has been getting better and better. Their talent and speed will be too much for the Illini.

Then, you have the disaster that is Illinois special teams. Their net punting sucks. Their return game sucks. They give up chunks of yardage every game and it really puts an inexperienced team in spots to make disasterous mistakes.

Expect Galen Hall to come up with enough (especially after reviewing the IU/UofI film) to get into the upper 20s.

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Penn State 26
Illinois 12
split them

amazing, Illinois has outplayed a team offensively/defensively for the fourth week in a row, yet has only won one of those games. Special teams disasters and turnovers are just too much to overcome.
WTF happened to Penn St's rush attack?

4-2 week 8
4-5 Illini ytd

for those keeping track, I'm 0-4 ATS on the last 4 weeks for the Illini

[MyTurn2Raise]

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POTW: Wisconsin -6 @ Purdue

are you kidding me? I know this is on the road, but this line is off by alot. The Badgers are a covering machine and I cannot believe I haven't been riding them big...a few $10 bets the last few weeks instead of really believing.

The matchups are perfect for the Badgers.

Purdue offense v Badger defense
The Boilers are pass, pass, pass again and they've been doing it well as they are 4th in yards passing (37 in efficiency) and aaveraging 33 points per game. While that looks good for the Boilers, the reality is that the majority of these stats were racked up against Ball St, Miami(OH), Indiana St, and Northwestern. The Boilers only scored 27 verse Minny, 21 at South Bend, and 17 in Iowa city. The Badgers defense is a pass stopping machine. They are #2 in the country on pass efficiency defense (though their schedule sort of sucks, too). The good news is Wisconsin has been so strong with pass efficiency defense without gettign many sacks. The Boilers don't allow sacks. This means is business as usual for the Badgers whose coverage will hold down a Purdue receiving corps that's decent, but not lights out.

Wisconsin offense v Boiler defense
For those living under a rock, the Boiler defense sucks absolute balls: 90th verse the rush, 98th pass efficiency, 101 ppg. The Badgers bring their bruising, punishing running attack verse the smaller Boilers squad that tries to get by on speed over size. This isn't good. Remember the Arkansas-Auburn game from a few weeks ago; this will be much worse. The Badgers are top20 in running and average over 190 ypg on the ground. They will pound out first down after first down. The Badgers will control the clock and wear out the undersized Boiler D. This looks brutal. The surest way to overcome playing on the road is to take their fans out of the game by pounding out first down after first down. It's deflating.

Special teams
Edge to the Badgers. Boilers FG kicker sucks, net punting is below average, punt returns suck, kickoffs are average.
Badgers kickoff returns suck, but their punting is good, and FG is adequete.

Last year, the Badgers won 31-13 after outscoring the Boilers 21-0 down the stretch.

Dunkel index has the Badgers 17.5 points higher and the Sagarin predictor has the Badgers 17.5 points higher.
WOW!!!!!!!!!

In addition, unlike some other POTWs, I don't see the Badgers putting up 4+ turnovers unless there is a really freak occurance.

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Wisconsin 24
Purdue 3

ty for the free $$$ linesmakers

5-2 week 8
5-3 POTW ytd

[MyTurn2Raise]

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MT2R,

You seem to pick a lot of games using Sagarin predictor. Isn't the predictor doing pretty poorly this year?

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I use it more of verification of my instincts and to identify games I should look at.

Historically, it's one of the best predictors there is, especially when the gaps are large.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Bridgejumper on tOSU v Indiana as well

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free $$$$

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Mississippi/Arkansas U41 good until 40.5

nightmare matchup for Mississippi on defense as their pathetic run stoppers go up against a huge Arkansas running attack. Yet, I am still taking the under. The key is that this game won't have many possessions. Both teams plan to run, run, run. It's Arkansas' strength and Ole'Miss just cannot pass. Even in the Razorbacks total domination of Auburn, it was only a 27-10 game. Ole' Miss is coming off a bitter defeat. The OT pushed their score upto 26-23. Previously, the Rebels beat Vandy 17-10, lost to Georgia 14-9, and lost to Wake Forest 17-3. This game screams of 34-37 points.

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Arkansas 38
Ole Miss 3

push it like it's hot

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Thoughts on the NE/Texas game? should be a good one. Too bad its at 11 am tomorrow, so I'll have to get up early.

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OK...Orange, you made me look at this so you reap what you sow. Since I jinxed your Gators last week by picking them, I'll reverse the jinx by going with the Longhorns this week.

Texas -5 @ Nebraska
good to -6

One of the highlight games of the weekend. Nebraska is riding high off of playing the 97th best schedule in the country. Other than USC (a 28-10 loss), the Cornhuskers have faced number 63, 81, 104, 133, 140, and 179 in the country according to sagarin. Sure, the Huskers have handled business for the most part (that Kansas game was odd though), but the competition level steps up in a big way this week.
Remember how USC dominated the Huskers on offense, here it comes again. The Longhorns are #2 in rushing defense and an above average pass efficiency defense. Sure, Baylor torched some yards and points against the Longhorns, but the Bears were also sacked 5 times and made 5 turnovers. Texas is the real deal on defense as Oklahoma can testify. I predict some success, but mainly tough times for the Nebraska offense.

Nebraska's real trouble comes on defense. Colt McCoy has matured every week. He's a good gunslinger ready to crush the competition. He's been on fire lately. He torched Oklahoma and is looking to excel on the national spotlight again, though I do have some concerns about it being his first real road game. Nebraska's defense just isn't ready for this. They've been lit up by gamebreaking playmakers at WR. The Huskers beat up on the teams without those, but USC and Kansas wideouts made Nebraska look silly. I predict big things for Sweed and company.

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Texas 22
Nebraska 20

close one were more breaks went against me than with me
Texas fg kicker missed 2 easy ones and kicked an xp right into the line

weird personal foul on Texas d late in the game saved Nebraska temporarily from their 19-14 fate.

5-3 week8