Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log

[DougOzzzz]

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dont forget the more you bet, the less mistakes you make also.

as long as you can deal with times like this, you will be ok.

you seem to have a decent grasp on handicapping (your picks usually fall in line with the guys i follow) and i personally think your betting teschniques could use some tuning up, but time will tell.

cant wait for another blood bath this week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Multicollinearity, i.e. the ability of two similar trends to predict the same result, thereby artificially inflating the win probability of a specific team, is the single biggest problem in trend systems. Before every season, I will spend hours upon hours making sure I've eliminated its influence by going through all my trends to ensure no multicollinearity exists. Because so many of my trends favor underdogs, this problem can become particularly acute during periods like the last 9 weeks. I am certain, however, that I covered all the bases before the season but will go over them again all the same.

If it's a question of pedigree, i.e. the problem is the person making the system and whether it's truly valuable and mathematically sound, I scored a 720 on the GRE analytical section and 800 on the GRE math section 3 years ago. As I see it, the problem that exists within the system is the potential over-reliance on trends -- through the first 130 games of this pro football season, it is of this that I am primarily, and probably entirely, guilty. I will need to correct this in some fashion.

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What I find interesting about your trend system is that somehow you use it to predict what the "true" spread should be. To me it seems not too difficult to evaluate several trends and say that Team X is likely to cover - however I have no idea how you translate that into an actual evaluation of the true point spread in a game.

I always thought that the biggest problem with trend systems was that many trends may simply be the result of random variation. Many stats I see thrown out by people trying to look smart tend to fall in this category, IMO. It could be that you are failing to properly regress each trend to the mean. Then again, it sounds like you have more experience with this than I.

It does seem though that your system too easily evaluates a game as a 3-5 unit bet. Your picks agree with my sources most of the time, but I am rarely ever told to put more than 2 units on a game. I pretty much maxed out on the Pats last night though, going with 2 units on the cover, 1 on 1H +3 EV, and 1 on the money line.

I am curious whether you track the success of your different grade of picks. If your 1 unit bets come through at a 55% clip, then your 5 unit bets should be coming through close to 2/3rds of the time. I'm sure you know this, though.

Anyway, hopefully things will turn around. The squares have to be feeling really good about their favorites now, and they have some money to boot. Hopefully this means the lines will be especially inflated and we can clean up the next few weeks.

[sygamel]

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I always thought that the biggest problem with trend systems was that many trends may simply be the result of random variation. Many stats I see thrown out by people trying to look smart tend to fall in this category, IMO.

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I've done my best to eliminate weak trends. I don't use any with fewer than 75 samples and those with 200 or fewer I downgrade into proper context.

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It does seem though that your system too easily evaluates a game as a 3-5 unit bet.

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When a number of very strong trends aggregate together, a high unit bet is likely. This has been the case repeatedly over the last 4-5 weeks, more so than usual. Unfortunately, a large proportion of them have lost. Remember though with systems that only evaluate games on a 1-3 unit basis that the unit amount you can play is frequently higher than in a 1-5 regime. Therefore a 2 or 3 unit game there may equate to a 5 unit game in my system.

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I am curious whether you track the success of your different grade of picks. If your 1 unit bets come through at a 55% clip, then your 5 unit bets should be coming through close to 2/3rds of the time. I'm sure you know this, though.

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I haven't done an extensive survey of this, it would just take too long. I am fairly certain, however, that correlation between unit play and success is positive and, at least, fairly strong.

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Anyway, hopefully things will turn around. The squares have to be feeling really good about their favorites now, and they have some money to boot. Hopefully this means the lines will be especially inflated and we can clean up the next few weeks.

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The thing is I've never considered myself a square or sharp. I tend to think those who laugh at the NFL squares of the world (Fezzik comes to mind) misevaluate the success such bettors do have in the LR, around 46-48%. Sure I rarely lay 4.5+ but I don't begrudge anyone for doing so if the underlying factors are strong, and that's all that matters. If I've been slow on the curve to account for these factors, then I need much work as a handicapper. The next 8 weeks will tell me quite a lot about how I need to prepare for '06.

[YoureToast]

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I am curious whether you track the success of your different grade of picks.


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I haven't done an extensive survey of this, it would just take too long. I am fairly certain, however, that correlation between unit play and success is positive and, at least, fairly strong.

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Syg, it would be great if you could do this. I, for one, wouldn't mind playing fewer games at higher units if doing so would be more +EV.

[sygamel]

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I am curious whether you track the success of your different grade of picks.


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I haven't done an extensive survey of this, it would just take too long. I am fairly certain, however, that correlation between unit play and success is positive and, at least, fairly strong.

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Syg, it would be great if you could do this. I, for one, wouldn't mind playing fewer games at higher units if doing so would be more +EV.

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It's not, this I *have* investigated. Incidentally had you been following this regime in 2005 and betting higher $/unit, you'd be down far more than $50/u x 35u. You're going to need to trust me on this.

[ezc3m]

hi there,

i don't post much but i do read your blog occasionally, i'm not worried about your current losing streak, all "pros" go through the same when favorite is winning.

however, one fault i do detect at times is your inability to predict dog line movements. dog lines shoots up closer to game time as square pound on favorites, particularly so this season. so its a lot more +ev to bet them nearer game time.

in week 9: you took texans +13, then +14.5 was out there close to kickoff, same with 9ers +10.5 when +12 was out there. altho these pts wouldn't have affected last weeks outcome, it will eventually and its -ev not to wait for a better line. i detect the same anamoly week after week when browsing through your picks.

do you see the same thing?

[sygamel]

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hi there,

i don't post much but i do read your blog occasionally, i'm not worried about your current losing streak, all "pros" go through the same when favorite is winning.

however, one fault i do detect at times is your inability to predict dog line movements. dog lines shoots up closer to game time as square pound on favorites, particularly so this season. so its a lot more +ev to bet them nearer game time.

in week 9: you took texans +13, then +14.5 was out there close to kickoff, same with 9ers +10.5 when +12 was out there. altho these pts wouldn't have affected last weeks outcome, it will eventually and its -ev not to wait for a better line. i detect the same anamoly week after week when browsing through your picks.

do you see the same thing?

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Hi,

Yes I've made some mistakes in the past, esp. on small lines, not large ones (e.g. I don't consider the difference between 11 and 12 very large at all), but for the most part they haven't hurt me too much. This week I was gone all Sunday morning so I couldn't wait for the Houston line to change at kickoff. I am shocked at how large money has moved toward favorites this year (larger even than in years past) and I am adjusting by not putting in my dog picks until Sat./Sun.

[sygamel]

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If your 1 unit bets come through at a 55% clip, then your 5 unit bets should be coming through close to 2/3rds of the time.

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Yes, this is how it works in the ante, probability stage. In the post, "actual" stage, the results are linear but compressed. (assuming this makes sense to you since you're a stat hound).

[ezc3m]

that's not entirely correct, there's a BIG difference between +13 and +14.5; crossing the number 14 is HUGE, and all indicators during the week points to that direction.

+12 also have some merits over +10', for instance, in a 6pts teaser you cross key numbers 14 and 17, and would've had major implications in that particular game.

the point is, a good capper knows his market movements, as this season so far have demonstrated, it's to bet the favorite early and to take the dogs late.

gl

[sygamel]

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that's not entirely correct, there's a BIG difference between +13 and +14.5; crossing the number 14 is HUGE, and all indicators during the week points to that direction.

+12 also have some merits over +10', for instance, in a 6pts teaser you cross key numbers 14 and 17, and would've had major implications in that particular game.

the point is, a good capper knows his market movements, as this season so far have demonstrated, it's to bet the favorite early and to take the dogs late.

gl

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I never said 13.5 to 14.5 wasn't huge.

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+12 also have some merits over +10', for instance, in a 6pts teaser.

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It's very easy to look back in hindsight and say this. I could not wait for the San Fran game to hit 12 in order to capture 18 because I wanted to ensure I'd get Miami at +7.5 and not at 7. I will always take 7.5 over 7 relative to 18 over 17. The Miami line opened at 2/2.5 and started drifting downward to 1.5. I wanted to make sure it didn't go all the way down to 1.

[junkmail3]

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Unfortunately, my modest goal is only to finish breakeven.

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So, that means, if I jump on now, I can finish the season up 35 units.

I'll raise my units, I'm in.

(tough run you're having)