Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats

[Kneel B4 Zod]

honestly the whole scenario is so far out in the future that speculating about thins like that is silly

[cmattos]

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honestly the whole scenario is so far out in the future that speculating about thins like that is silly

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It's certainly fun, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[LucidDream]

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what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.

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That doesn't make sense either, that is what advertising is for. Just because you are a popular company in certain businesses does not mean you try to take over every business.

[Sarge85]

This connection should be made public with as much noise and fanfare as possible.

True or not, it will be bad for Krist

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[DVaut1]

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Well since I saw the interview with a rep on 20/20 or 60 minutes or some kind of show like that it would be hard to disagree. I doubt I am the only one that saw this. It ran 2-3 months ago. I didn't just make it up and it is no real secret.

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No, you're exactly right -- Harrah's and MGM would love to get into the internet gaming market if they could.

It should be clear, however, that this says nothing about the liklihood of the OP's conspiracy theory to be true.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make sense either, that is what advertising is for. Just because you are a popular company in certain businesses does not mean you try to take over every business.

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Google, AOL, and Myspace are exactly in the business of translating clicks into $$$$. They already have all the traffic they would need and wouldn't need to spend the advertising dollars - that's the point.

MGM et all could spend a TON and still not get the traffic these sites get

[LucidDream]

Well no one said the OP was 100% correct but I think he is on the right path. Conspiracies in the govt or whatever you want to call them usually run pretty deep. Alot of money and string pulling is usually involved. I am not a conspiracy theorist in any way but this is just how the govt opperates. Someone is always greasing someone's pocket and decisions are made based on which lobbyists are willing to pay the most.

This is why alcohol and tobacco products are still legal when they have absolutely no redeeming value whatsoever. If companies like MGM want to have online gambling leagalized it will happen, it is only a matter of time and a matter of how much money it will cost them to make it happen.

[LucidDream]

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what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make sense either, that is what advertising is for. Just because you are a popular company in certain businesses does not mean you try to take over every business.

[/ QUOTE ]

Google, AOL, and Myspace are exactly in the business of translating clicks into $$$$. They already have all the traffic they would need and wouldn't need to spend the advertising dollars - that's the point.

MGM et all could spend a TON and still not get the traffic these sites get

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Like I said, makes no sense. They get plenty of traffic from all over the world to the middle of the [censored] desert. If you think they won't get traffic to their websites when people don't even have to leave their houses then you are dense.

[woodguy]

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I'd love for this conspiracy to be true, but it seems like the conspirators went to an awful lot of trouble to achieve something they could have accomplished with much less effort and gotten done much sooner. If Harrah's or some other American gaming corp wants online gaming legalized, why not just go through the typical lobbying channels? If Harrah's, Caesars Ent., MGM et al want Frist or some other Senators do something for them, they typically just cut a bigger check and send it directly to their campaign coffers, or threaten to fund their opponents -- not engage in long, drawn-out legislative shenanigans that would invariably cost them lots of money if this was their 'real' motive.

Party made something like $850 million dollars in revenue last year. I suspect a legitimate American company with huge brand awareness and endless resources like Harrah's or MGM could make two or three times that if given the opportunity. You think they're going to spend a year or two orchestrating this kind of conspiracy when they could be making all that revenue right now? If the answer is "but they want to gain market share" -- that seems pretty silly. Party/Stars/888.com couldn't hope to compete with the B&M behemoths and their aura of legitimacy/infinite advertising resources/huge brand awareness.

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Do not underestimate the cost of starting a new online gambling venture and actually get past the break-even point.

Not many would gamble at "Harrah's Online Casino", just because it was Harrah's.....so what? They would be a late comer to a market that is already oversaturated.

But.....

What if you could essentially cut off 80% of your future competitors income, while at the same time become of one of very few servicing the industry (US)?

That is worth many multiples ove the $19,250 that is recorded as being Harrah's official contribution to Frist. (the number is probably higher, probably significantly higher if Frist had any idea how much it was worth)

I would personally pay over $1 Million (depending on how long I could have the market virtually to myself), and my business only generates about $30 Million in revenue per year. That's revenue, not profit.

Tin-Foil-Hat firmly in place,
Woodguy

[cmattos]

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Well no one said the OP was 100% correct but I think he is on the right path. Conspiracies in the govt or whatever you want to call them usually run pretty deep. Alot of money and string pulling is usually involved. I am not a conspiracy theorist in any way but this is just how the govt opperates. Someone is always greasing someone's pocket and decisions are made based on which lobbyists are willing to pay the most.

This is why alcohol and tobacco products are still legal when they have absolutely no redeeming value whatsoever. If companies like MGM want to have online gambling leagalized it will happen, it is only a matter of time and a matter of how much money it will cost them to make it happen.

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As I said above: "When in doubt, follow the money." [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]