Useless predictions

Nate tha\\\' Great · #1 10-01-2006, 02:06 AM

Party Poker will operate as much as possible in business-as-usual, "buyer beware" mode, perhaps taking some smaller steps like preventing US players from playing their casino games or closing off certain funding routes like IGMPay.

PokerStars will be the most proactive site in pursuing legal strategies against the legislation, and will offer deposit and cashout options to US players in accordance with the opinion of their lawyers.

888.com will stop accepting US players and will do so relatively soon.

Full Tilt will develop some funky new payment mechanism which might or might not be legal.

Paradise Poker will differentiate based on the state of residence of the US player.

Ultimate Bet will go bankrupt or become an acqusition target for a larger site.

Bodog will do something incredibly brash and stupid, get the pants sued off of them, and ruin it for everyone else.

Poker_Hoar · #2 10-01-2006, 02:24 AM

Nate, you have posted great analysis on this site. I think business will not go on as usual for PartyGaming. They will withdraw 'emphasis' on the USA by not promoting and not advertising there. Since they are the 'Category Leader' their advertising was beneficial to all sites. So although we may see little/no difference in our play experience the effect will be dramatic non-the-less.

Zele · #3 10-01-2006, 02:26 AM

I agree at least 71% (I don't know Full Tilt, and I haven't kept up with Paradise since 2003 or so), and I think

[ QUOTE ]
Bodog will do something incredibly brash and stupid, get the pants sued off of them, and ruin it for everyone else.

[/ QUOTE ]

is brilliant, except perhaps change "sued" to "extradited".

Bilgefisher · #4 10-01-2006, 02:30 AM

Since were on the topic of useless predictions. Is it possible for big US casinos to start pushing for their own online legislation. Basically so they can corner the US market?

flair1239 · #5 10-01-2006, 02:30 AM

I somehow think the effect of this bill is going to be pretty understated. I also think that the enforcement could get watered down in the actual writing of the code.

Also there will udoubtedly be legal challenges and delays.

JoseGonzlez · #6 10-01-2006, 02:33 AM

Nate, do you think the fact that Party Gaming is publicly traded in London will have any effect on their decisions. I guess my question is would the British authorities make them stop taking US customers.

Some good points i think PokerStars can be the leader in this since they generally are the best run company and have a few other things going for them

Zele · #7 10-01-2006, 02:34 AM

Those of us with a conspiratorial bent believe this was behind the B&M's "wait until the 11th hour, then waffle" strategy. Those with a more direct familiarity with incompetence feel there is a simpler explanation.

Edit: Surely, the US B&M's would love fully legal i-gaming, and would really, really love legalized i-gaming protected from foreign competition. In the short-term, it looks like an uphill battle from here, even for such a deep-pocketed industry.

coachkf · #8 10-01-2006, 02:39 AM

LOL at Bodog. ;]

I think you hit on another point though. I believe our fate is wrapped up for the most part in how the poker sites react.

If they decide to thumb their nose at the USA and continue to accept US players, they'll develop new ways to deposit that are just as simple as current methods (if neteller/firepay etc. are blocked). Business will carry on as usual with a speed bump here and there.

If on the other hand, the poker sites decide to comply, then we're screwed.

I don't think the USA can really choke the flow of money to online gambing sites effectively, simply because for every e-wallet they block, 2 will rise in its place. It's already happened in the past with Paypal and credit cards being blocked, hence the rise of Neteller, Firepay and Moneybookers (and more!). It's not that the banks won't try to enforce this... I just don't think they'll be able to do it effectively.

I also don't see the US actively trying to prosecute online gambling CEO's, as long as those CEO's don't step foot on US soil.

Just my thoughts and attempt at logic. Could be wrong...

genuinejon · #9 10-01-2006, 02:42 AM

Party Poker will operate exacly the same.

PokerStars will wait it out.

888.com will start advertising with reckless abandon (Gold).

All sites will develop some funky new payment mechanism which might or might not be legal, but still works well enough for the semi-smart player.

Ultimate Bet will go bankrupt cuz they suxxor.

Bodog will do something incredibly brash and stupid, get the pants sued off of them, and, unlike WSEX before them, finally make it ok it for everyone else.

Edit to add: If it is not clear, I love the WSEX guys. Like PokerBob love.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #10 10-01-2006, 02:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nate, do you think the fact that Party Gaming is publicly traded in London will have any effect on their decisions. I guess my question is would the British authorities make them stop taking US customers.

[/ QUOTE ]

PartyPoker is the Walmart of the poker industry: they're all about volume, volume, volume. And an unusually high percentage of that volume is concentrated in the United States; if they cut out the United States, they're no longer the market leader. Thus, I think they'll figure "we're the captain of this ship and we're going down with it".

I do think publicly traded status is something that might encourage companies to be more careful, all else being equal, which is why I listed 888.com as the most likely to prohibit US players. They're publicly traded, BUT their player base is more heavily European, and there may be some "first-mover" advantage to the company that first abandons the US. But PartyPoker has too much to lose to do that IMO. Just my gut-feel.