$16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble

[Gnumsploitz]

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FWIW, you're getting 2 to 1, not 3 to 1...

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This is going to make me sound pretty noobish, but so it goes. I'm calling t1025. At that point the total is t3250 with antes and my call. Before making my call, the total would be t2225. Is it ~2:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win the t2225, or is it ~3:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win t3250 total? It'd be nice to have this clarified because I always seem to get this screwed up. I'm going to assume the former is correct.

[relativity_x]

here's what you have:

you're paying 1025 to win 2425 so that's 2.4:1.

[relativity_x]

the guy has an M of 4....he's pushing any two here.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it ~2:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win the t2225, or is it ~3:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win t3250 total?

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The first one.

[PokerIsLife]

you don't count the amount that you have to put into the pot to call the bet. I think that play is fine, and thinking about the chip stacks if you lose or win is good before calling. I would call the AI and except a 40-60 flip.

[DevinLake]

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the guy has an M of 4....he's pushing any two here.

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You are very wrong. For one, villain is a 2p2er so he doesn't give a damn about M.

He would stilll have 6.5 bbs if he folds this hand. He knows he has little fold equity. I think he's pretty tight here actually. Obviously his range is dependent on his read on OP.

But, he for sure is not pushing anytwo.

[DevinLake]

I think your raise is fine, but I think I fold to his push. Pot odds are great, but this is the bubble so...

Now I'm going to try and back it up with some numbers.

Edit: I ran some numbers.

I gave BB a fairly generous range IMO of 88+,A9s+,AJo+,KTs+,KQo,QTs+ (Pokerstove 10%).

If this is his range, calling his push is -0.27% $ev.

He needs to be pushing 77+,A8s+,ATo+,K9s+,KJo+,QTs+,JTs (13%) for this to be +$EV. I think this would be wishful thinking.

[lastchance]

Yeah. There should be no discussion about folding preflop after you raise.

The real interesting decision is the initial action, and I lean toward folding.

[Josh_sieg]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. There should be no discussion about folding preflop after you raise.

The real interesting decision is the initial action, and I lean toward folding.

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I think I agree. I was watching Raymer play the WCOOP the other day and he raised from the button, the short stack BB pushed and Raymer snap called with 99. Raymer said he never raises in those situations without planning on calling the allin from the shortstack. That's what you have to decide here.
Although, PF i don't want to push, so think I'd probably just fold.

[DevinLake]

I completely agree, I look at the stacks and who has those stacks before making any kind of raise.

In this spot, I'd look and think 'is there anyone I have to call a push from?'. The shorty is very close. So, folding here would certainly be fine.

However, I'd also think what are the chances of me getting pushed on? Mostly I would be looking at the big and small stack for this. Is the big stack the type to make a move on me? Is the shorty a guy who is desperate?

Well, I don't know the read on the big stack so that's up to the OP.

However, shorty is 2p2 and understands concepts of gap theory, fold equity, and tournament equity. He understands how important it is to not bust here, and the best way to do that is to avoid showdowns. What does all this mean?

It means his not pushing over your raise very often. Ie., he has a tight range. Ie., you could fold to his push, which my earlier post quantifies.

So, I think I'm raising here, knowing that I'm not calling a push from anyone.