50 100 with str8 on flush/paired board

[drywater]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey VM,

I'd check this river. Our opponent looks sane, and his most likely hands in no particular order are:
-AsKs
-AsJs
-KsJs
-QQ
-TT
-77
-AA
-AQ
-AT
-A7
-AK(overplayed, so needs to be discounted heavily)
th
We're now behind the flushes, QQ/TT/77/AA/AT, and ahead of A7, AQ, and overplayed AK. I think it's a pretty clear check, especially since we get c/r'd when behind most times.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes , you are right. The key word is "sane opponent".
I would discard A7,AK,AT, so the remaining candidates
are:

AA,QQ,TT,77, - 10 combos
AsKs,AsJs,KJs, -4 combos
AQo - 9 combinations. I would discount by 20-30% as only AQ with a spade would most of the time reraise the turn, not sure about other AQ hands.

So with candidates in the first row we loose 2 big bets.
Against second row hands we loose 1 bet (but probably they would bet the river.)
We gain a bet against AQ.
And nothing to KJ.
Dont need any calculation to be more inclined to a check. But maybe I am just whimpy.

Any opinions?

Good variance