Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?

[seke2]

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Things to remember:

- Wasicka in one of those canned interviews said he thought he would win HU against Gold if Gold had him outchipped 10:1

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That's dumb of him. He might be better than Gold, but he's not that much better.

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- Gold had talked about his hands perfectly and said something like "let's go all three of us and get this over" and everyone always made the wrong decision when they based it on what Gold was talking about... certainly a factor for Wasicka.

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That's a valid point regarding reads.

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- Gold has luckboxed into the most unlikely hands at all times. If you saw him bust two FT players with QQ to JJ, would you be spooked? How about his 22 flopping a set against AK? Wasicka's correct read and incorrect laydown against Gold's 52 turned straight after checking too far down? If I was in Wasicka's shoes at the moment he had to decide to lay this hand down, those factors would be at the forefront of my mind more so than calculating odds.

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Totally irrational to make a decision based on him being lucky.

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... Wasicka's best bet would have been to overpot bet or push the flop to isolate... in that case you're making Binger and Gold make the tough decisions - who at the FT ever made Gold make the hard decision? Once Wasicka passes up the flop lead out, his fold makes a lot of sense to me, especially in the context of figuring out his best chance to cash at a higher level... they are in the pot let them duke it out if they show strength.

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I agree with the first part of what you said here, but not the second part, the fold still doesn't make sense in the context of everything else.

The ONLY thing that people have said that makes Wasicka's fold even slightly palatable is the read he had on Gold, but as people have demonstrate with pot odds and whatnot, unless he was convinced that Gold's draw WAS exactly a higher flush draw (as opposed to a lower flush draw) or a straight draw, against a range of hands for Gold including various drawing hands (since he "knew he was on a draw") still makes this a pretty solid call.

[21times20]

since he had the 78 and the 56 was on the board it is just slightly more likely that any flush draw was higher than his rather than lower

[APipeDream]

He called a pre-flop raise, then checked the flop. Obviously better to lead out here in hindsight.

[registrar]

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since he had the 78 and the 56 was on the board it is just slightly more likely that any flush draw was higher than his rather than lower

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As Baking Ace said, Gold is raising any higher flush draw from the button. From 910s upwards. There is simply no reasonable hand that Jamie Gold can have (given the way he had been playing) that Wasicka is behind.

For those saying that Wasicka is on a draw - this is totally irrelevant in an all in situation. There are two more cards to come: Wasicka is a favourite over pretty much any other holding and certainly over anything that Gold has played like this. In that situation, with 5678 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] all out, the hand that I would most likely put Gold on, given the button limp, would be bottom two pair and Wasicka has that crushed.

[21times20]

i think you have a much more liberal definition of the word crushed than i do

[nath]

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I watched this live, not the edited version - but I got physically ill when Wasicka said what his hand was and prayed that he was lying and didn't just make the worst fold I have ever seen.

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agreed, and i saw it live too

this fold is terrible, i don't care how much better you think you are than the other players, if Wasicka was playing for the win, the equity he gives up here is too much to overcome, since Gold has such a massive chip lead

[registrar]

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i think you have a much more liberal definition of the word crushed than i do

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fair comment, but he's a clear favourite and that's the best reasonable hand i can think of.

[Matt Williams]

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Seems like an easy call based on the +EV, but would you? Really...would YOU?!?

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I'll never know cause I'm leading this flop 100% of the time and therefore I won't be put in that spot. I lead flop, Binger pushes, Gold folds, i call, i win ME shipitholla.

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I agree. I wonder if Wasicka was planning on check raising and then didn't know what to make of Gold going all in when Binger bets.

[Black Aces 518]

this fold just makes me mad

if this was some hidden underground tournament, or for some reason only the top 2 paid and they paid $2m, $6m, OK.

But this is the goddam WSOP ME. You make your name for LIFE if you win. You are set. The $EV of just winning the damn tournament is so huge. And he already has $4M wrapped up anyway.

Given a choice between guaranteed 2nd place and $6M, and a gamble where I get 1st 1 time in 10 and 3rd the rest, I would take the gamble. The $EV of the guaranteed 2nd is $6M to the gamble's 4.8M. You don't think winning the ME is worth $1.2M in equity? PLUS, the gamble doesn't account for the fact that calling does NOT put Wasicka anywhere near as bad off as 1 in 10 to win, no matter the holdings AND ignores the VERY real chance that he finishes 2nd a large amount of the time if he loses the hand. In fact, looking at it, a 1 in 20 shot of 1st may be worth it. ARGH.

[21times20]

no i completely agree, there is no way wasicka factored in the ev of taking first and, to quote the greatest journalist to ever live, the ancillary income that comes with it...he probably didn't even factor in the difference between first and second, and he probably vastly overestimated his ability to overcome a massive chip lead heads up

i just think a lot of people replying in this thread aren't thinking in anymore depth than "ooh i have oesf draw, i go all in"

there are plenty of times when you should push with a big draw, but pushing yourself and being the one with fold equity is much more preferable to calling

but i will stop arguing semantics and theory, in this case this hand was probably his best chance to become really rich and somewhat famous instead of just really rich