|
|
#21
09-25-2006, 06:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
[ QUOTE ]
NROG originally said in the other thread that, while Frist will continue to push during the lame duck session, he is unlikely to succeed. [/ QUOTE ] Big picture, there are basically three ways that we can "win" the lame duck session. 1. Frist just doesn't bother because of some combination of the following: a. He's demoralized/discredited after a loss in the midterms. b. He gets too much negative feedback from lobbying groups. c. He identifies other pet issues that will buy him more votes with less political capital expended. d. He didn't care that much to begin with and was really just posturing. 2. Frist tries, but is rebuffed by interests on the Senate Appropriations Committee, e.g. Harry Reid. 3. Democrats take over and hold everything up, or otherwise insist on keeping non-germane [censored] to a minimum. A fourth way we can win, I suppose, is if favorable bill langauge is inserted, e.g. "credit cards only" or "study". If I were a lobbying interest here, I would be spending at least some fraction of my time exploring that outcome. 
|
|
#22
09-25-2006, 07:05 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
nate thanks for all the great updates. along with berge and mr.k you guys have done an unbelievable job keeping us up to date. with all the new information that has come out in the last 24 hours, i'm wondering what you think the current % chance of some online gambling law passes before the 109th congress adjourns. (i realize it may just be rank speculation or a guess, but it is a much more informed estimate than i could make.)
|
|
#23
09-25-2006, 07:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
Anyone know the chances of the Dems taking the lead?
|
|
#26
09-25-2006, 07:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
i'd google the cook political report to see the races and who they think will win. this should give you an more exact idea, but from what i've heard is that the house will go +/- 5 in either direction and that the republicans should maintain control of the senate by 1 or 2 seats.
|
|
#27
09-25-2006, 07:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
[ QUOTE ]
nate thanks for all the great updates. along with berge and mr.k you guys have done an unbelievable job keeping us up to date. with all the new information that has come out in the last 24 hours, i'm wondering what you think the current % chance of some online gambling law passes before the 109th congress adjourns. (i realize it may just be rank speculation or a guess, but it is a much more informed estimate than i could make.) [/ QUOTE ] I don't know. I think these estimates were much easier to make back when it was a game of holds and the amount of time left in the session. Now it all comes down to discussions in smoke-filled rooms, and it's much harder for an outsider to make an informed estimate. The Tradesports contract last traded at 17.7%. There were times when I thought that contract was clearly too high or too low, and I don't think it's clearly too high or too low right now. I guess I'd feel more comfortable saying that the probability is somewhere between 5% and 35%, and that whether it edges toward the greater number or the lesser one is fairly strongly dependant on what happens in the midterms.
|
|
#28
09-25-2006, 07:25 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone know the chances of the Dems taking the lead? [/ QUOTE ] GOP has a 29 seat lead in the House, and a 5 lead in the Senate (Independents caucus with Dems) So Dems need to go +15 in the House and +6 in the Senate House- The only prediction I can find is by Larry Sabato who says Dems will get +12-15. Senate-Sabato says +3-6 for Dems.
|
|
#29
09-25-2006, 07:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
According to www.electoral-vote.com, which is a conglomeration of recent polling data, its real close. The projected Congress is:
Senate: Dems 50, GOP 50 (GOP winning the tiebreak) House: Dems 216, GOP 218, 1 tie Quick plug for the Dems
|
|
#30
09-25-2006, 08:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
[ QUOTE ]
According to www.electoral-vote.com, which is a conglomeration of recent polling data, its real close. The projected Congress is: Senate: Dems 50, GOP 50 (GOP winning the tiebreak) House: Dems 216, GOP 218, 1 tie Quick plug for the Dems [/ QUOTE ] If Lieberman wins, is he going to call himself a democrat?
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
