MyTurn's week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)

[MyTurn2Raise]

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POTW tOSU -6 @ Iowa

3-1 POTW ytd

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The most overrated team in the country runs into reality this week.

Seriously, I'm trying to understand how this line is so low. I cannot believe it isn't 2 TDs or more. I've investigated and found no injury rumors on the Buckeye side.

Anyway, here is my take:
just to refresh everyone what happened when these two teams met last year in Columbus:
Ohio State 31 Iowa 6
Ohio St had 60 carries for 314 yards and were 14 of 21 for 216 yards. Iowa had 18 carries for negative 9 yards! Iowa was 22 out of 39 for 146 yards and 1 pick. Iowa was +1 on the turnovers.

2 'Secrets' to this game that should be obvious. First, and most importantly, Iowa is much, much worse this season. On offense, Iowa doesn't have any straight forward rushing attack. Iowa was the first Illinois D1A opponent in 12 games to not average over 4 ypc. Even in Iowa's most impressive game, the 27-17 win verse Iowa St in Kinnick, Iowa's running success came to the outside and not up the middle. When Tate was out verse Syracuse, Iowa couldn't just roll over an inferior Syracuse team.

When it comes to passing the ball, the Hawkeyes also have some issues. There is absolutely no big play potential here. The WRs are not burning anyone deep. Let's face it, if you cannot burn Illinois, you cannot burn anyone. In addition, Drew Tate has not thrown one pass more than 25 yards downfield since his injury earlier in the year....Yikes! Iowa has chipped away with 5-12 yard passes and runs to the outside. Neither of those methods seems to be particularly effective verse tOSU.

Against the Buckeyes, Iowa will not be able to run at all. It seems unnecessary to cover this, but secret #2 is that this year's Buckeye D is top 5 in the nation even with 9 new starters. Let's look at some Buckeye D stats
Opponent-PA:Yards Rushing-Carries:Pass Comp-Pass Att-Pass Yards-INT
NIU-12:155-33:16-30-169-1
Texas-7:186-31:19-32-154-1
Cincy-7:56-22:20-25-216-3
Penn St-6:149-39:16-25-87-3

cliff notes: tOSU is giving up 8 points, 167 pass yards, and 115 rush yards per game while only allowing 3 TDs and creating turnovers and TDs. The Iowa team will not be able to run up the middle here, which is the one chink that has been seen in the Buckeye D. tOSU just has too much speed for Iowa to beat them running to the outside, especially so since tOSU's secondary can come up and aggressively play the run since the threat of the Hawkeyes throwing over the top is minimal. The lack of a deep threat will also encourage Buckeyes to jump the shorter routes that Iowa has lived on so far this year. It will also be interesting to see how the Iowa offense responds to pressure in their own backfield, which is something they haven't faced much of this year. The Iowa offense verse Buckeye defense is a complete mismatch...10+ points would be a victory for the Hawkeyes IMO.

When trying to figure out why the line was so low, one of the few things I could pinpoint was the lack of offense by tOSU verse Penn St last year. I attribute that more to the monsoon than anything else. In the other 3 games, the Buckeyes rolled. That includes a great performance at Texas, whose D has looked pretty good in other games (it's made me $$$ with the Rice under total and Iowa St under total [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

Iowa's D has continued its bend-don't-break vanilla scheme with success this year. The problem is they don't have the athletes to keep up with the talent on the Buckeyes side. Iowas returns much the same unit that the Buckeyes torched last year, except that the Hawkeyes lost the heart (Greenway and Hodge at LB) and the corners. This year's replacements are not as good and the unit is down as a result. For one, expect CB Shada to get beat over and over again. He made four pass interferences just this past week against the overwhelming talented WRs that Illinois throws out there. Iowa continues to not really force turnovers. Only against lowly Illinois did it turn their way.
All in all, expect 30+ from the Bucks

OK, so Kinnick is a tough place to play. Dankhank pointed out to me that Iowa is 27-6-1 ATS in their last 34 at home IIRC. Guess there is a systematic bias that underrates Kinnick. Kinnick has just been renovated and is supposedly right up there with Penn St as the second most intimidating road game in the Big10. Well, tOSU is used to this and used to the big stage. I find it hard to believe that the renovated Kinnick is any tougher than the renovated stadium down in Austin that the Buckeyes visited just 3 weeks past.

This game will be ugly...I see 34-10. Iowa gets exposed in front of the nation.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Michigan -7 @ Minny

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No danger of a letdown from the Wolverines here considering the epic way they lost to the Gophers last year in the Big House.

Michigan so far:
at, Sep 2 Vanderbilt W 27-7 --
Sat, Sep 9 Central Michigan W 41-17 --
Sat, Sep 16 at (2) Notre Dame W 47-21 --
Sat, Sep 23 Wisconsin W 27-13 --

Minny so far:
Thu, Aug 31 at Kent State W 44-0
Sat, Sep 9 at (22) California L 17-42
Sat, Sep 16 Temple W 62-0
Sat, Sep 23 at Purdue L 21-27

Ok, Minny rolled over the two cream puffs, but got whipped by Cal and Purdue handled them better than the score would suggest. Minny's strength remains in its running attack; the Gophers are averaging 227 yards rushing per game (compared to only 195 passing).

After the last game verse Wisconsin, Michigan's D has proven itself as capable of stopping the run. Michigan's D is allowing 199 yards passing and 19 yards rushing per game! The new defensive coordinator and players are working to their max so far. Even the Badgers abadoned the idea of running last week. Michigan has held Wisconsin, Vandy, and Notre Dame to less than 2 ypc! It doesn't look good for the Gophers on offense.

On the other side, the Michigan offense is healthy and rolling. Manningham has stepped up as the big time receiver. Breaston is a great compliment. Hart and Grady are pounding the lines for over 4ypc. Chad Henne has been adequete, but still focuses too much on one receiver at a time.

the only potential misstep here IMO is the fact that Minny is one of the most odd places to play. OF all the places I've seen a game at, the Metrodome is the most uncollege-like atmosphere of any major school. IT does sometimes bother the players, but I don't think it will enough for Michigan to not win by double digits.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Penn St -15 v Northwestern


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NW is the suxorr....fade fade fade

Honestly, this team cannot pass the ball. Against Miami (Oh)...nothing. Against New Hampshire....nothing. Against Eastern Michigan... nothing. Against Nevada...nothing.

Look at those four opponents. Not one of them should stop a major conference foe from airing the ball out. All have been torched a few times during the season, yet the Mildcats have been incapable of passing. NW's qb Kafka has 1 TD and 5 Picks and a qb rating under 100 (that's low in college). NW can run the ball, but a team with as much talent as Penn St can crush one dimensional opponents. Penn St's rush D is holding opponents to 82 ypg and it seems more susceptible to the air attack. One has to think that NW will struggle like crazy to score in Happy Valley.

On the other end, NW's defense isn't that good. Expect King, Williams, and Hunt to go off in front of the 100k home fans. I think 31-10 seems right on here.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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USC/Washington St u54


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My fingers are crossed that Wazzu can come up with a stop here and there. USC's defense is primed to just dominate the whole year. USC is allowing 157 pass yards and 61 rushing yards per game after facing Arkansas, Nebraska, and Arizona! They will shut down Wazzu just like Auburn held the Cougs to 14 and Bears held them to 17. Auburn put up 40 on the Cougs, who have held down the next 3 very inferior opponents. This might be the game USC's offense goes off. I'm just hoping it isn't for 40+.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Alabama/Florida u39


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BoxScore from last year's huge bama 31-3 win

neither team will be able to run in this game. Florida's rush D is monstrous. Alabama's rush D is above average, but the Florida O doesn't run block very good. Florida will have to resort to bringing in Tebow to get the rush going. The key is how much Alabama can pressure Leak. If they can make him move his feet, Florida will have trouble scoring enough to push this over. It's a given that Bama won't score enough to push it over.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Mississippi St/LSU u40.5

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Miss St this year
Other than the Tulane game, Miss St hasn't been able to put up anything points-wise and will be completely dominated again

LSU so far this year

the only question is will LSU score 40 again? I think MSU's defense, despite the Tulane debacle, is decent. If their defensive line can remain strong enough to get a few stops, the Bulldogs will keep it an under.

[MyTurn2Raise]

oh yeah, in case anyone hasn't noticed, I'm riding SEC unders until they buck me

[Troy Smith]

The one factor I think you are overlooking in the OSU-Iowa game is weather.

OSU can be slowed down by bad weather, as was shown by the Penn State game. Right now, the forecast is high of 60 with a few showers. This might be why the line is lower than you expected. However, I expect OSU to cover for the 5th straight week this year.

[rush66]

Troy you are god!!

[MyTurn2Raise]

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The one factor I think you are overlooking in the OSU-Iowa game is weather.

OSU can be slowed down by bad weather, as was shown by the Penn State game. Right now, the forecast is high of 60 with a few showers. This might be why the line is lower than you expected. However, I expect OSU to cover for the 5th straight week this year.

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nope...I looked at the weather

few isolated showers...day before and day after are dry

no big, day long thunderstorms expected